Gameboy70
Member

Registered: Oct 1999
Location: Metro Station, Hollywood and Highland
Posts: 1018 |
Ken:
I think your analogy of Palm = Pong is right up to a point. PDAs will evolve with or without Palm. But I'm speaking from my experience as a Newton 110 refugee. When I owned the much more powerful Newton, I always loved the idea of it, but I never enjoyed using it. It was too big (the unit itself and the stylus), it never tracked my handwriting (I'm lefthanded and write small -- two cardinal sins with the Newton's HR algorithms), and it didn't synch with my PC (without extra software). Then I moved to the Palm: an inferior screen resolution, no true handwriting recognition, no sketchpad (the Newton even had shape recognition!), etc. -- but within the first hour of use I knew I'd never touch the Newton again.
I should elaborate on the Zen of Palm. It's too simplistic to define it as less vs. more; it's a gestalt of design decisions that makes the whole greater than the sum of its parts. It fits in your shirt pocket (the PDA primary demographic is middle-class males who don't have a purse), it doesn't waste limited resources on handwriting recognition (replacing it with an easy to learn script), you can access it's primary apps with the press of one button, it synchronizes with a PC right out of the box (you had to buy a Windows Connection Kit for the Newton) and because it lacks superfluous bells and whistles, it's cheap.
It's not as though the Palm started from ground zero. It did a lot less that many of its contemporaries in the handheld market. When the Pilot 1000 first came out, many pundits were quick to notice that it didn't have a sketchpad, didn't do HR, didn't do IR, didn't have a PC card slot, etc. And I'm sure that if you asked the average user whether those features were important, they would've said "yes." Jeff Hawkins' genius was to ignore the focus-group approach and simply pay attention to his own simulations with a block of wood. He realized that there was a big difference between what people say they want, and what the actually do and use. He's often said, when asked to include some wonderful feature, "Someone has to be the bad guy and say no." At some point you have to account for what's possible with the current state of the art vs. form and cost constraints. What makes the Springboard so attractive is that you can add features selectively without exceeding those constrains.
If MS can get their hardware vendors to include all those wonderful features in a box that can fit still fit comfortably in your shirt pocket and cost under $350, then Palm and Handspring will have real competition; otherwise CE will continue its downward spiral. For $500, you can get a PC.
foo fighter:
Handheld computers aren't quite as ubiquitous as we'd like to think just yet. There are about 10 million PDA sold to date; cellphones are well above 150 million. I live in Hollywood, a pretty progressive town technologically, and I'd say I see perhaps 2 or 3 Palms/PPCs a week. I see twice that many cellphones a day.
When I say "power user" read: anyone who knows how many megahertz their PDAs processor runs at. Most consumers don't know or care. PDAs are sold as consumer electronics devices, not as computers (another interesting statistic from Palm's market research is that 50% of Palm owners don't know how to download an application).
I didn't mean to imply that MS was "bad" for using proprietary technology, any more the Palm or Handspring. My point was that MS is a software manufacturer, so it's in their interest (in this context) to advocate an open hardware standard for their OEMs. Remember, with WinCE, the customer isn't you or me, but Casio, HP, etc. MS has already made their money, and will continue to do so as long as OEMs don't drop them.
It's not the number of features that count but the right features at an attractive price. DB3 is a vast improvement over the original Datebook, and Handspring wouldn't have included the original if it weren't burned into ROM. I could take or leave CityTime. I would've preferred something like Hackmaster included instead. Oh well, nobody's perfect.
I haven't met any warm and friendly monopolies, but again, I define monopoly by abuse of power, not power itself. When an MS sales rep can say to one of his desktop OEMs, "Bill is not happy with you," and have that manufacturer dump some competing software that was to be bundled with its product, that's abuse. I don't see that happening with Palm (yet), but I'll assume nothing.
If by "warm and friendly monopolies" you mean a company with an exclusive market, look on further than Apple: 100% of its market last time I checked. People don't complain about Apple because people are satisfied with its products, and they don't feel the company has abused its power. I would disagree, given its history of pulling OS licenses, but the point is that most people are satisfied, so they don't find any reason to take action against them.
Anyway, I've said more than enough for now. I welcome any feedback.
[This message has been edited by Gameboy70 (edited 03-26-2000).]
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