Registered: Nov 1999
Location: indianapolis,IN,usa
Posts: 12

Been reading a lot from people stating their Order #'s.

Now I do have a simple question, Is there a way to see how many orders they have recieved?

My web order using the date time stamp as the first grouping, then the 2 group I assume is an N+1. Do they cycle through or continue to grow. Point is this, the highest number I've seen here is 2500+, so given that an average order is 1 visor. YTD order is on the low side 2500 and the high side of 5000 units.

So they are either building up inventory or their yield sucks.

Registered: Oct 1999
Location:
Posts: 16

The online order# start with 991006-1001. My order number is 991007-27XX (not 29XX as I accidentally typed earlier). The web site crashed on 10/7 or 10/8 not to reappear until much later.

jbw

Registered: Nov 1999
Location: MA
Posts: 19

zorloc,

My order is in the same batch -> 991007-23??.
Have you heard anything or even received yours yet?

Registered: Nov 1999
Location: indianapolis,IN,usa
Posts: 12

Oops I made an error, I have an order # in the 3400's. So lets do the math. First day you could order was around 9/1. So in 61 days they averaged only 55 orders a day. Hmmmmm and we swamped them????

Sounds more like a case of vapor hardware. Maybe they took a note page from Microsoft and decided to sell before they had.

One wonders just how many units that truely represents. I'm will to bet that not too many people ordered 2 or more. But for the sake of venting, lets say that we all ordered 2 units so Handspring would need to produce 7,000 units. And we have to account for bad units, say a failure rate of 5%. They would need to produced 7350 units to cover the orders. Just over 110 units a day.

Now things just aren't adding up. Could they be buying units in quanities; thereby, not buying units till they have to. Four to Six weeks needed (build time and ship time).
This would reducing the company's cost; however, they risk that production can't keep pace with demand.

Maybe they need not only to let buy.com build their ecommerce. Sounds like they need a good production system also.

Registered: Oct 1999
Location: Augusta, GA
Posts: 10

ehensley:
I could be wrong, but I think that the web orders have their own numbering system. That's why they started with such a low number at the beginning of October. :-)

Registered: Oct 1999
Location:
Posts: 16

The web orders are different than the phone orders (until recently).

web order#:
10/6 -> 1001-2221 -> 1221 orders
10/7 -> 2222-2839 -> 618 orders
10/8 -> 2840-3039 -> 200 orders
Then the site crashes.

And no I have no info. Someone on this board is reporting that he(she?) received an email from Handspring (not a CSR) that the initial web orders have been delayed another 2-3 weeks.

If this is true I may cancel out of spite. How hard is it to get out the 2039 initial web orders? Why are they shipping FedEx to people that ordered on 10/14 (see Visor Received Log), when I am supposed to wait until early/mid-December?

As many are speculating, it looks like production problems.

jbw

Registered: Sep 1999
Location:
Posts: 95

ehensley:
you've got some of your numbers wrong. The first day you could order was 9/14, not 9/1. On 9/27 (13 days later) I placed my order over the phone, & became #6183 to place an order.

That would put an average order rate at just over 475 per day if NOBODY ordered more than one. People have made estimates that there were about 3-4 people taking orders during that time. If there were, on average 5 people taking orders, and the orders were distributed evenly throughout the day (and we all know that's not true), then each CSR was taking an order BY HAND every 15 minutes.

Consider that my original order for a VD, Serial Cradle, & backup module took about 11 minutes, after about two hours on hold, I think we can pretty well assume that, YES, we did swamp them.

Registered: Nov 1999
Location: indianapolis,IN,usa
Posts: 12

I just would like an honest count of their production, something isnt adding up. I've worked 13 years in the automotive world in the QA department and I know production.

Even accounting for the poor order process and the DB problems. This just doesn't seem correct. Your production system has to more stable than this and able to expand 30% on short notice. Talk to a few people that deal as a teir 2 company to GM and ask them. However, I think they decided early on in the project to hedge their bets on the response. As a result, there are only a few things to correct it.
1: Increase the # of production lines ( expensive, and long term),
2: Speed up the current lines ( QA/QC problems, and increased RMA's later on),
3: Delay orders ( Piss on the customer, etc)
4: LIE! (piss off more people, and hope demand curves down, claim production bottle necks and start improvements.

I don't know if I believe the production bit, since it shares parts with Palm. Supply problem maybe, Cash flow likely. Startups dont have the deep pockets, so they may have the total inventory.

Theo: ok, the order numbers are different for web vs phone. So I'll give you 3/4 the total of web sales for phone sales. (accounting for the phone problems, and the web problems). So Handspring had at most 12250 orders as of 10/31. Thats in the span of 47 days.

This is an est. While I would take it to the bank. The reported numbers dont add up to 50k of orders.

I just wish they would be honest and start being up front. WE all know they aren't that good at planning. Read a few other posts, they are now saying to some that its going to be 8+ weeks now. So here again, things are not adding up.

I just wonder if the FTC is starting to here some complaints.

[This message has been edited by ehensley (edited 11-15-1999).]

Registered: Sep 1999
Location:
Posts: 95

ehensley:
Remember my figure was for partway through the 13th day of phone orders, if we drop the demand on the phone orders and say it was 3000 per week, then that's a total of 15000 by 10/31 (already more than your estimate of 12250). If we assume your 3/4 again that number took place over the internet, that's a total of 11250 orders for a total of 26250. I know quite a few people apparently ordered more than one, so we'll put the average order up to 1.1 (probably high, but I've lowballed the other numbers), then we've got a total of 28875 Visors ordered plus all the other associated cradles & modules.

Remember though that the hold-times didn't really decrease when Handspring originally doubled it's CSR staff, so the above figure is probably quite low. It may not actually be 50K, but it's likely to be at least mid 30K or so, possibly even into the 40Ks.

Of course, I would like to see actual figures every bit as much as you would.

Registered: Oct 1999
Location: richmond, va, usa
Posts: 46

As I was going through some old stuff on the Visor, I came across a September interview with Dubinsky on the Piloteer Magazine website that may lend some light to this discussion:

"Q: You have chosen to market the device through the internet. What kind of an effect do you hope this will have on the way in which the Visor is used?

A: Our decision to market initially on the internet is driven mainly by limited supply and by our belief that early purchasers of a new hand held computer are likely to be very web saavy. We will expand into more traditional distribution channels after the first of the year when we have the volume to support it. "

So...it looks like they just don't have enough units to satisfy demand, and didn't plan to have production capability until 1/1/00 at least. If this is the case, then they are probably still digging a hole, not getting out of one.

Registered: Nov 1999
Location: indianapolis,IN,usa
Posts: 12

wgharper, good point.

The more I read, the more I understand how Handspring is operating. They look at us as early adopters willing to accept the treatment that we have gotten.

However, I hope they also understand early adopters tend to lead the masses away from bad companies. How many of would recommend the visor currently to say our friends and companies.

I'll just think that Handspring may be trying to build inventory for their other distribution chains and I have to wonder if Best Buy, Circuit City or Compusa will get their orders prior to US early adopters.

I thought I waited long enough to order to avoid the first massive rush, and it appears that I should have waited longer.

Have to admit, I am spoiled with Just In Time Delivery and this is a bit of a shock.

Registered: Oct 1999
Location: Dallas, TX, USA
Posts: 70

I'm just wondering how long it will be before someone else comes out with an equal or better product, and Handspring has some "real" competition. Because unless they clean up their act, that will be the death knell of their company. Lord knows if I could get a comparable product from anyone else, I'd never order from them, and would never recommend them to anyone. Heck, I'm considering purchasing what I consider to be an inferior product just because of all this mess, and the fact that buy.com can actually ship overnight, something Handspring apparently couldn't do if their lives depended on it.