Toby
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Registered: Jul 2000
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Posts: 3034 |
quote: Originally posted by dkessler
I don't have the numbers, but I'd be willing to bet that the original Pilot sold way more than 13,000 units in its first quarter
I didn't get quite that far in the book yet (they're coping with the USR post-sale effects right now), but if they reveal it, I'll let you know. quote: and it didn't launch with nearly the media blitz that the Treo did. I think you're misunderstanding my point. I'm _not_ saying that the Treo is Hawkins's Next Big Thing�. More on that in a sec...quote: It's also worth remembering that the Pilot had the backing of USRobotics and later 3Com - companies that had other "cash cow" products and weren't totally dependant on the Pilot's success for the company's survival. Exactly why I foresee Handspring going down the same road that Palm Computing had to if they want to survive.quote: There's a chance that the Treo could eventually gain the kind of market acceptance that the Pilot did, Personally I doubt if it will. It's hampered by the deployment of GSM in the states and not being tri-band, IMO.quote: but it's doubtful that today's investors will have the patience to wait. Same as it ever was. Palm Computing was in the same boat when it sold to USR. The palmtop industry really doesn't have that stellar of a track record. The Pilot was the exception and not the rule.quote: This isn't a one or two player fringe market the way it was in the early days of the Pilot. Um, it really wasn't a one or two player market then either, although honestly it's _still_ a fringe market. I think people with PDAs think it's a bigger market than it is for the same reason that most people notice how many cars there are on the road just like theirs right after they buy one.quote: It's in the limelight and there's a ton of competition. Oh come on, Dave. You don't remember all the spotlight on General Magic and the Newton? They got tons of press in the _mainstream_ media. Most of the troubles of Handspring, Palm, et al barely make the front page of the Money section anymore.quote: Handspring doesn't have any other currently successful products to draw revenue from. If Treo sales doesn't make Handspring profitable by Q4, there won't be any money to keep the product afloat while it "catches on". That's the problem with it. If Hawkins really has a Next Big Thing� left in him, it shouldn't _need_ time to catch on. It'll just need some major financing to get it produced. I'm betting Dubinsky's getting tired of the fundraising again.quote: Given that Handspring put 47,000 Treos in the "channel" last quarter and only 13,000 actually sold to end-users, I don't see how Handspring is going to pull off a turn-around. If they do, it'll be the same way that their Palm Computing did: sell to a bigger company. It won't be Sony due to NIH reasons.
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