CMShenir
Member
Registered: Nov 1999
Location:
Posts: 10 |
Hmm. I just spent some time playing with huski's data (yes, imported into Excel. Yes, I realize how obsessive this is starting to look). There are some very interesting patterns here:
First, I divided all orders up into weeks, starting at 14-21 Sept, and moving up from there. Looking at the "Ship Rates" (the percentage of orders that have been received as of 11/17, ignoring cancelled orders) for each week, the following appears:
14 Sep-21 Sep: 68% have shipped
22 Sep-28 Sep: 65% have shipped
29 Sep-05 Oct: 61% have shipped
06 Oct-12 Oct: 19% have shipped
13 Oct-20 Oct: 62% have shipped
Notice the huge gaping hole in the 4th week? This is the week the online store began taking orders. Most who ordered over the web that first week have received nothing, contrasting markedly with those who ordered both before *and* after them. I'm not sure what to make of that (especially since I'm one of them. One would expect the older weeks to have higher ship rates than more recent weeks, but *all* weeks seem to be holding steady at 60-65%, except for the Web Week. (Note: only one order from the last 3 weeks has shipped, so these were left out of the analysis.)
I also looked at how many days it took for Visors to ship, from order date to ship date. For the data as a whole (not divided into weeks) and only considering the orders that *have* shipped, the mean and mode were between 40 and 45 days, or just at 6 weeks. Week 2 (22-28 Sept) skews a little bit higher, with a mode of 50 days, while weeks 1 and 3 sit right around 40 days.
So, make of this what you will. It looks like, except for Oct 6-12, people have a 60% chance of having gotten their Visors already. If you did get your visor, it was more likely than not just around the 6 week mark, with significant numbers both above and below this figure.
I'm going to go do something more productive now.
CMShenir
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Never before have things been so much the way they are now.
[This message has been edited by CMShenir (edited 11-18-1999).]
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