Registered: Feb 2001
Location: Atlantic Rim
Posts: 570

Trade Center Collapse = Tech Sector Rebound?

I have been planning to buy a new desktop system in the next month or two. I placed my order today when it occurred to me that companies like Dell, Gateway, Compaq and IBM are going to be swamped with orders to replace the thousands of computers lost in the World Trade Center collapse.

We've all seen the hours of agonizing television coverage. I don't recall seeing any fleeing survivors carrying their laptops out of the buildings with them, or synch cradles either for that matter. There are tens of thousands of survivors who are going to be telecommuting for months...they will need something to work with.

I offer this not as a callous investment tip, but to dispel the notion that once financial markets reopen that they will inevitably plunge. Quite the opposite may be true, at least in the tech sector.

Registered: Dec 2000
Location: Elkins Park, Pa
Posts: 577

I hate to say this, but most of those computer users also will need to be replaced.

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Registered: Feb 2001
Location: Atlantic Rim
Posts: 570

Rubble Trouble

Fortunately that is not the case.

Registered: Dec 1999
Location: Connecticut USA
Posts: 2682

I think it's a bit premature to be thinking this way. This tragedy is much bigger than worrying about replacing some computer hardware. NYC is far from anything that even resembles normal. I would also imagine that many of the survivor's aren't really concerned with getting back to work just yet (though for some that may be the best therapy).

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Registered: May 2000
Location:
Posts: 209

I don't think this event will force a rebound in the tech sector.

Most of the well-known companies that occupied the WTC and surrounding buildings have contracts/agreements with disaster-recovery firms or with the consulting divisions of the major hardware/software players (IBM, HP, Sun, Oracle, Microsoft, etc.) to provide backup, recovery and operational support.

The latter is typically provided in satellite locations, already stocked with equipment. And should additional equipment be required, cross-agreements are usually in place to provide shipment of the needed equipment-- in other words, some inventory would have to be maintained. The costs of all of this is already "built into the plan" and... already paid for.

Replacing the inventory, should it get that far, probably won't register in any market forecasts-- organizations would usually include a cycle plan to keep reasonably current technologies on hand.

Registered: May 2000
Location:
Posts: 209

...along the lines of disaster recovery, there's an article here about it:

http://www.zdnet.com/zdnn/stories/n...hkpt=zdnnp1tp02

Registered: Feb 2001
Location: Atlantic Rim
Posts: 570

quote:

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Originally posted by ProjectZero
I don't think this event will force a rebound in the tech sector.

Replacing the inventory, should it get that far, probably won't register in any market forecasts-- organizations would usually include a cycle plan to keep reasonably current technologies on hand.

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Registered: Sep 1999
Location: Sydney Australia
Posts: 1883

ernieba1 had a good point...
if there are no end-users, there is no need for new laptops...

Very sad, but very true....

But it is too early to tell....

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Registered: Jan 2000
Location: Twin Cities, MN
Posts: 1683

In the grand scheme of things, 100,000 product units is not enough to rebound a slowing industry sector. Actually, more than likely, this event is going to push us into a recession much sooner than we were anticipating...which could be a good thing...in that the sooner we go into recession, the sooner we'll get out.

In addition, I don't think buying new computers is necessarily at the top of the priority list for the companies affected by this event.

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Registered: Feb 2001
Location: Atlantic Rim
Posts: 570

quote:

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Originally posted by homer

In addition, I don't think buying new computers is necessarily at the top of the priority list for the companies affected by this event.

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Registered: Jan 2000
Location: Twin Cities, MN
Posts: 1683

quote:

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Yours is a lovely sentiment, but for the IT departments of several major brokerages and trading houses it is very true.

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Registered: May 2000
Location:
Posts: 209

If 100,000 units and associated computing accessories were needed today, that might be an issue. However, I believe the demand for equipment would most likely be staggerred for months to come due to:

- Not all of the survivors will be returning to work all at once;

- Not all are able to return to work for some weeks or months to come;

- Not all may want to return to Manhattan at all;

- Those that do return to work may not necessarily require a computer (i.e. the majority of the employees of the hotels in and near WTC);

- Those that may want to return to work have no physical location to sit and work;

- ... and for some businesses, resumption would require setting up shop elsewhere. And you'd have to find that "elsewhere first".

- As insensitive it may sound, some jobs may not be replaced;

- Telecommunting? Not all jobs affected lend itself to telecommuting.

And, as the downturn of the economy has shown, planning would be necessary to re-establish the business plan. A company is not going to buy equipment based on what and who was working before Tuesday-- they'll be evaulating the new needs, economic conditions, minimum business requirement levels and setting priorities on the intangibles after Tuesday.... before someone opens the cash box to buy a new PC.

However, a factor that helps in a potential equipment issue is that the major companies affected also have offices in New Jersey and/or in the other bouroughs already capable of conducting business with minimal disruption.

Another factor is that purchasing power isn't limited to within New York-- you're read how there's excess hi-tech inventories-- a call to an OfficeDepot, Staples, even a Wal-Mart in another state can easily be made by the corporate accounts representatives. That would in addition to the contacting the manufactures directly. And include Dot.Bomb equipment auctioneers like DoveBid (remember there's a lot of good equipment that got orphaned from companies that ran out of money).

Considering that consumers and businesses were in a buying holding pattern before Tuesday, if anything, the needs would help deplete the excess inventories and return supply levels to a reasonable norm.

Last edited by ProjectZero on 09-14-2001 at 06:12 PM

Registered: Oct 1999
Location: Baltimore MD, USA
Posts: 717

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quote:

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Originally posted by homer
I would think that these companies would have off-site archives of all data and documents, not to mention redundant servers, networks, etc.

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