ragamuffinn
Member

Registered: Oct 1999
Location: Mililani, HI, USA
Posts: 256 |
Bane,
I think it's like any other consumer industry, where, I believe contrary to what you're saying, 3rd party supporters want assurance that there is indeed a market before they start tooling up for major production. This assurance can only be given in the form of the number of already existing customers. They are even more at the whim of market fluxuation than the 1st party and simply have no recourse if the 1st party fumbles and leaves 3rds hanging dry. I don't know of any consumer market where this isn't the case. But I don't know much, so if you can inform me, that's great. really.
But with camera equipment, laptop accessories (this you MUST be aware of, since you're into mobile computing), heck, even the CD market (if you remember how early CD was introduced), the pattern is that 3rd party support doesn't take off until about 1-2 quarters after there is strong evidence that a market exists in the first place. So expect to see hoards of springboards by Q2 2000. (Assuming that HS's Visor goes all the way.)
Oops. I think I now know why you're talking about the NOW of people and technology. Perhaps the one place where what I've said doesn't hold up too well is the computer hardware industry, where chip support and 3rd party board support (and even software support) kinda (but sometimes do not) go hand in hand. But I think the handheld market behaves more or less like the remainder of consumer markets. For one, on the developer end, it's smaller--there is less investment driving it. Two, on the consumer end, it's smaller as well. The number of PDA users is growing, but it's still nowhere nearly as large as the number of pc users.
Chris
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