VisorCentral.com (http://discussion.visorcentral.com/vcforum/index.php)
- Visor & Deluxe (http://discussion.visorcentral.com/vcforum/forumdisplay.php?forumid=1)
-- Visor vs. Pocket PC (http://discussion.visorcentral.com/vcforum/showthread.php?threadid=1222)

I would like to make a few things clear to all you nutballs who keep emailing me (see the "Off Topic" forum). I like the Palm OS very much. In no way do I think that the Pocket PC marks the death of the "Palm Economy", quite the contrary, I think this is great for the Palm community. Any time there is new innovation in the computer industry it benefits all platforms. Who knows, maybe one day we'll see Palms that have built-in stereo out jacks! But as simple as the Palm is, it's beginning to show it's age. I do think this is the beginning of the end of the Palms domination in the PDA market

The problem is that Palm views any new feature as going against the "Zen of Palm". This is both a blessing and a curse. The Pocket PC has many features that Palm users have begged for over the past 4-5 years. Including: audio capabilities, more advanced built-in apps, color screens (with higher resolution), expansion slots, and so forth. The Visor comes closest to this feature level but not right out of the box. Visors' have the illusion that they are cheaper than the Pocket PC, but that's not entirely true. Add up the cost of all the Springboard modules that add to its capabilities. The Visor deluxe costs $250...but the Innogear MiniJam player will set you back around $169(I think that's the price), now add the price of apps. QuickSheet (equivalent to Pocket Excel) costs about $40...ouch!, SmartDoc (equivalent to Pocket Word)is about $20, Ultrasoft Money (equivalent to Pocket Money) is about $30. That alone goes beyond the price of a Pocket PC, and we still haven't added the COLOR DISPLAY! Plus the Pocket PC has an "industry standard" expansion slot, not a proprietary Springboard slot. How many consumer electronic devices have a Springboard slot? How many have Compact Flash?

The biggest problem for the Palm economy, as I see it, is the fact that the wrong company holds control over the Palm OS. Palm is simply too conservative for it's own good. HandSpring has the most lucid vision of what features PDA devices should have, at least in relation to the Palm. Microsoft was always criticized for not understanding what consumers wanted from a handheld device. But this time I think it may be Palm who's left holding the bag. Microsoft may have found a niche with three critical features...Color...MP3...and ebooks. All of which are the hot buttons in consumer electronics. Palm has always contended that it's devices are simply Organizers, but that image may prove to blow up in it's face. It's going to become harder to justify owning several devices that each perform a specific task when you can simply own one device that does most of them. The Visor carry's that philosophy, to some extent, but those features are not built-in. Would anyone really want a Palm VII that required the purchase of a $200 add-on to connect to a wireless service provider...of course not! You would expect it to perform those functions out of the box.

In the end it comes down to innovation through competition. Many of you out there hope that the Pocket PC will be a failure and that Windows CE will die away for good. Get real!, do you really think you will ever see any innovation within the Palm Economy without outside competition? Many of you see Microsoft as a monopoly, but what happens when they (Microsoft) leave this market...that's right, Palm will become a monopoly on handhelds! Without competition a market stagnates, becoming the status quo. Look at Windows on the desktop. We, as consumers, haven't seen any "radical" new GUI interface innovation from Microsoft since 1995. That's based, partly, on the fact that Microsoft practically owns the desktop. And so it's going to take a competitor to bring new innovation we all crave, namely Apple, in the form of Mac OSX. Without Apple we will still be using the same Win95 interface for the next 3 years!

In the end it comes down to choices. Change is good, especially when it's for the better. And the Pocket PC is clearly a choice we need.



[This message has been edited by foo fighter (edited 03-25-2000).]

Wow! that post was long! I got carried away, sorry.

Not to keep on ranting, but another thing I would love to see on future releases of the Palm OS is a file explorer. I've always hated the fact that the Palm keeps the file system hidden from the user. Pocket PC uses a file directory system similar to Windows, right down to a My Documents folder. This makes it very convenient to find all of your files and documents rather than having to open QuickSheet to find your spreadsheets or TealDoc and iSilo to find your doc files. Just my 2 cents.

foo fighter:

You brought up a lot of interesting points about the CE design philosophy vs. the Zen of Palm. I do think that the Pocket PC, based only on the couple of reviews and screenshots I've seen, is a big improvement, but it's still based on a flawed premise that equates features with value.

Imagine two companies that make four-function calculators: Company A makes a basic one, and Company B makes one that displays its numbers in over 500 TrueType fonts. Company B charges 100% more for their model because, surely no one will argue this, their product has such an awesome additional feature. The problem is that it's not a feature that's particularly relevant in the context it's used. The Pilot 1000 had fewer features then the Newton (I had a MessagePad 100) when it was released, so if Palm is out of date now, it was out of date then.

Honestly, I don't see how the Pocket PC makes better economics. They will cost nearly twice as much as the Visor. They play MP3 out of the box, but only out of their main RAM, so you if you want to listen to more than to or three songs (or have room for apps and ebooks), you're going to have to buy a Compact Flash module that costs almost as much as an MP3 Springboard. So you're spending the same money to get the same MP3 capabilities. Of course, with the Visor you're spending about $100 more dollars to get an equivalents to Pocket Word, Excel and Money, but again, with the Pocket PC you're spending an extra $200 in the first place to pay for those apps. And what about the large number of people out there that use none of those apps (according to Palm's demographics, 50% of Palm users never use anything beyond the built-in apps)? There's another hundred dollars saved "right out of the box."

I would like to have a color screen, since it's easier to read and just looks better in general, but I'm not willing to pay more the $350 for it. Pocket PCs do have much better displays (higher resolution, color, ClearType), so if MS can get Casio, HP, or anyone else sell them at an attractive price, I'll be willing to go for it. But it's not likely.

I think MS really misgauged the market this time: they were trying to make a product for power users (people who are really impressed with all those features), forgetting that power users often dismiss handheld computers as toys. Wince aims to be a Computer, while Palm aims to be a PIM. Pundits are always dismissing PDA owners as gadget freaks, but the fact that the Palm is the only product in this market to have critical massed indicates that what people aren't buying is technology, but functionality. Most PDA owners also have laptops, so there's not much point for using PDAs for tasks better done on a laptop.

CF may be an open standard compared to the propriety Springboard, but that point is moot. WinCE is proprietary, and so is its new ClearType technology. MS has no proprietary hardware because it is not a hardware company. Their own products, without exception, are proprietary.

And monopolies are not defined my money or market share, but abuse of power. Palm could have a 100% market share and all the money in the world, and as long as they aren't forcing their technology down are throats, as long as people are genuinely choosing their software, then there's no harm done. The same applies for MS, but notice that you can't walk into a retail store and buy a PC bundled with BeOS, OS/2 or Linux. You can walk into a retail store and buy handhelds with EPOC, CE, or some vendor-specific OS.

Palm has the biggest market share because it does exactly what the average consumer needs at an affordable price. Wintel boxes outsold fuller-featured Macs for the same reason. But if the Pocket PC and compete with Palm and Handspring on utility and price, then MS might have a future in this arena.

Wow, great posts guys! Mine will be a tad bit shorter and less organized.
I'm happy with my PII 233MHz computer and I'm happy with my OVDx. Why? Because the price was right, they funciton perfectly (well other than Win 98 crashing on occasion). My point you ask, well simply that there will always be something bigger, better(?), and faster but my computer and OVDx fit my needs right now and I will change devices when my needs change and/or these devices no longer cut it.
That is why I like the idea of springboards because they allow me to easily change the capabilities of my PDA when I want and not invest in one huge package with all the bells and whistles which I don't need or want (too bad that is just a theory right now since there are no damn springboards that I need, come on innogear!).

Ahh well, hopefully you get my point and as always my opinion is subject to revision with time, i.e. this fall I may be drooling over product ___X____.

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MOO!!!

Ok, I have just GOT to be apart of these postings. This may be a tad redundant but I just can't help myself.

I think the bottom line is PRICE!!! Compared to the Aero, the Visor (and the palm for that matter) is a steal!

I do however think that MS has finally gotten it right. This OS looks VERY promising. The price will have to be reasonable or it might flop. MS has always tried to do everything, with their pocket PCs, that a normal PC can do. They have learned, it seems, that they are NOT PCs, they are pocket PCs. The main functions that people want are PIM, ebooks, mp3s etc.

Honestly, I think they could have left out the spreadsheets. The Palm OS does not come with as many built-in apps as does CE; but that should be left to the developers, IMHO. Of course, MS has a reputation in the spreadsheet area, so they had to make one.

If these pocket PCs are $500-$600 (and you know they will be), there's no way anyone in their right mind could get one and say that it does more than a Palm OS device. Ok, so that's a bit much.... but that's a lot to pay for color and a different OS. So unless your rich, Stay with the palm. We may even see a color visor soon, who knows!

Competition is always good, so I welcome the pocket PCs... I just may not buy them.

LONG LIVE FREE SOFTWARE!!!

You guys have a great discussion going on here. Lets hope it doesn�t get demoted to the �Off Topic� forum.

I�m tracking with a lot of your ideas, Gameboy, but I personally don�t agree with your thoughts on MS �misgauging the market.� Maybe last year I would have agreed with you, but �the times they are a-changin.� IMO � what was once considered a simple toy for gadget freaks is slowly turning out to be a must-have, all-encompassing communications tool for a much larger audience. Why else are we now seeing Palm team up with some of the big wig cell phone companies? And aren�t they partnering with Apple, too? Why? Because they want to do a better job of reaching the gadget freaks? No way. This market is about to explode. Functionality is still a high priority, but technology is a big part of the equation, too. In this day and age, you can�t have one without the other.

This is how I see it. Palm = Pong (I can hear the outcry now from the Palm corner). We laugh at Pong today, but twenty some odd years ago it was *the* game. Actually, it was probably the only game. So why the comparison? Because Pong was a new medium that was simple enough for people to get a grasp on. Once they �got it,� manufacturers were able to up the �ante.� Same thing with handhelds. People are starting to get it. And now they want MORE! They want a PDA that can do everything, including turn off their sprinkler system from twenty miles away (this technology is actually in the works!). And the list goes on.

If Palm continues with this line of thinking - people *only* want functionality � they�re going to stunt their growth. Like I said before, you have to have technology in there, too. And I honestly think � from what I�ve read � that the new WinCE is going to bring these two together in a way that will be VERY attractive to both gadget freaks and the slightly larger non-gadget freak population. It�s not a simple toy anymore. But maybe that�s where we�ll see the dividing line? Palm as a simple toy. WinCE as an all-in-one, multipurpose technological tool that can also turn off your sprinkler system. (Actually, Handspring seems to be thinking more this way than the people at Palm!).

Off the topic � Foo and I are thinking about goin� fishin�, so if anyone wants to join us feel free to sign up in the �Off Topic� forum. (Sorry James � I just had to slip that in there).


[This message has been edited by Ken (edited 03-26-2000).]

Hey Ken,
Nice to see you made it back upstairs.

Gameboy70, you made several very good points in your argument, but I disagree with several of them. First off you made the statement that "real Power users" don't use handhelds because they see them as "toys". Quite frankly I find that hard to believe in a market where handheld computing devices have become so incredibly popular, everyone seems to have one! Also you made the statement that the Pocket PC platform is proprietary in spite of the fact that it's uses an industry standard expansion slot. Your right! But so is the Palm platform. Is the Palm OS source code open source? NO! they license their OS to other hardware vendors just like Microsoft, the only real difference is that Microsoft charges considerably more for it's OS.

I disagree with another statement you made about a flaw you perceive with the philosophy of the Pocket PC: "it's still based on a flawed premise that equates features with value". Hmmm...if that's the wrong equation then why did Handspring bundle improved built-in applications with it's product? And how many of us would agree that a Visor is a much better value that a Palm, based on it's new feature?

Lastly, you made a statement about monopolies in general: "monopolies are not defined my money or market share, but abuse of power. Palm could have a 100% market share and all the money in the world, and as long as they aren't forcing their technology down are throats, as long as people are genuinely choosing their software, then there's no harm done". Wow! I really disagree with that...first of all how many warm and friendly monopolies have you met? Secondly, if Palm were to gain 100% of the overall market, you will see the end of innovation from the Palm platform due to lack of incentive to add new features. Monopolies are companies who control markets, they don't necessarily have to be abusive. Either way you look at it a market controlled by Palm is not good for consumers.

Don't take my argument to seriously Gameboy70, your statements were very intelligent and very well thought out. It's a refreshing change from the stupid emails I get saying..."you suck!"

Please post your retort.

[This message has been edited by foo fighter (edited 03-26-2000).]

IMHO, there will always be a market for both WinCE and the PalmOS. The PDA market is still very new, and many people aren't going to want to invest $500-600 in a PDA when laptops keep getting cheaper. You make the point that to buy a Visor and then the components to get to what comes in a WinCE device would equal or be greater than the WinCE device is valid, but for many people that initial cost is too high. I can buy a VDX now for 250, and gradually add that spreadsheet and MP3 module, but to buy it all at once would be a bit much for my budget.

As to the point about monopolies, by definition a monopoly has most of the market. Palm Inc has the most market share, but is gradually licensing out the PalmOS to survive. The reason that MS was so successful is that they went after the OS instead of hardware. Palm is doing the same thing. License out and promote the OS and don't focus so much on the hardware aspect. Handspring has already changed the game for Palm alot with the introduction of the Springboard and low prices. Palm has had to react with lower prices, more memory, and now the IIIc.

Overall, I really like the idea of the Springboard module. Right now I'm working on a review for IntelliGolf. You can download it and keep it on your Palm organizer, or just take it with you when you go to the course, saving memory. The MP3 module by Innogear can be used outside of the Visor - can the PocketPC do that? The ability to pick and choose what I want in my PDA is more enticing than a kitchen sink PDA. If another company makes a better MP3 module, I can get that and lose nothing but my money. The WinCE would still have that built-in Media player inside (or some other overhead).

In conclusion , there will always be a place for the WinCE and Visors. Some want to buy it all at once, while others will just get what they need.

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James Hromadka
VisorCentral.com
Personal Website: http://www.Hromadka.com

Ken:

I think your analogy of Palm = Pong is right up to a point. PDAs will evolve with or without Palm. But I'm speaking from my experience as a Newton 110 refugee. When I owned the much more powerful Newton, I always loved the idea of it, but I never enjoyed using it. It was too big (the unit itself and the stylus), it never tracked my handwriting (I'm lefthanded and write small -- two cardinal sins with the Newton's HR algorithms), and it didn't synch with my PC (without extra software). Then I moved to the Palm: an inferior screen resolution, no true handwriting recognition, no sketchpad (the Newton even had shape recognition!), etc. -- but within the first hour of use I knew I'd never touch the Newton again.

I should elaborate on the Zen of Palm. It's too simplistic to define it as less vs. more; it's a gestalt of design decisions that makes the whole greater than the sum of its parts. It fits in your shirt pocket (the PDA primary demographic is middle-class males who don't have a purse), it doesn't waste limited resources on handwriting recognition (replacing it with an easy to learn script), you can access it's primary apps with the press of one button, it synchronizes with a PC right out of the box (you had to buy a Windows Connection Kit for the Newton) and because it lacks superfluous bells and whistles, it's cheap.

It's not as though the Palm started from ground zero. It did a lot less that many of its contemporaries in the handheld market. When the Pilot 1000 first came out, many pundits were quick to notice that it didn't have a sketchpad, didn't do HR, didn't do IR, didn't have a PC card slot, etc. And I'm sure that if you asked the average user whether those features were important, they would've said "yes." Jeff Hawkins' genius was to ignore the focus-group approach and simply pay attention to his own simulations with a block of wood. He realized that there was a big difference between what people say they want, and what the actually do and use. He's often said, when asked to include some wonderful feature, "Someone has to be the bad guy and say no." At some point you have to account for what's possible with the current state of the art vs. form and cost constraints. What makes the Springboard so attractive is that you can add features selectively without exceeding those constrains.

If MS can get their hardware vendors to include all those wonderful features in a box that can fit still fit comfortably in your shirt pocket and cost under $350, then Palm and Handspring will have real competition; otherwise CE will continue its downward spiral. For $500, you can get a PC.

foo fighter:

Handheld computers aren't quite as ubiquitous as we'd like to think just yet. There are about 10 million PDA sold to date; cellphones are well above 150 million. I live in Hollywood, a pretty progressive town technologically, and I'd say I see perhaps 2 or 3 Palms/PPCs a week. I see twice that many cellphones a day.

When I say "power user" read: anyone who knows how many megahertz their PDAs processor runs at. Most consumers don't know or care. PDAs are sold as consumer electronics devices, not as computers (another interesting statistic from Palm's market research is that 50% of Palm owners don't know how to download an application).

I didn't mean to imply that MS was "bad" for using proprietary technology, any more the Palm or Handspring. My point was that MS is a software manufacturer, so it's in their interest (in this context) to advocate an open hardware standard for their OEMs. Remember, with WinCE, the customer isn't you or me, but Casio, HP, etc. MS has already made their money, and will continue to do so as long as OEMs don't drop them.

It's not the number of features that count but the right features at an attractive price. DB3 is a vast improvement over the original Datebook, and Handspring wouldn't have included the original if it weren't burned into ROM. I could take or leave CityTime. I would've preferred something like Hackmaster included instead. Oh well, nobody's perfect.

I haven't met any warm and friendly monopolies, but again, I define monopoly by abuse of power, not power itself. When an MS sales rep can say to one of his desktop OEMs, "Bill is not happy with you," and have that manufacturer dump some competing software that was to be bundled with its product, that's abuse. I don't see that happening with Palm (yet), but I'll assume nothing.

If by "warm and friendly monopolies" you mean a company with an exclusive market, look on further than Apple: 100% of its market last time I checked. People don't complain about Apple because people are satisfied with its products, and they don't feel the company has abused its power. I would disagree, given its history of pulling OS licenses, but the point is that most people are satisfied, so they don't find any reason to take action against them.

Anyway, I've said more than enough for now. I welcome any feedback.

[This message has been edited by Gameboy70 (edited 03-26-2000).]

James,

From what I gather about the Innogear MiniJam, it doesn't need the Visor at all!, Which leads me to believe that this is more marketing than anything else. I think Innogear is simply trying to attach it's name to a popular product. Handspring had a serious issue with the company over this fact, they didn't want Innogear to enable the MiniJam to be used sans Visor. I think this will backfire on Handspring big time. Consumers can purchase the MiniJam w/o a Visor at all!

Another issue I have is with the Palm OS screen resolution (160x160)...it looks terrible. They need to bump it up to 240x320 similar to WinCE, even the new Samsung Yopy (which runs Linux) has this resolution, which brings me back to my earlier statement that the Palm OS lay in the wrong hands. Handspring should be the company developing this platform, not Palm!

foo fighter:

Innogear will make an SDK available for developers with write software for the MiniJam/Visor. It's true that an MP3 player doesn't need to be a Springboard, but the Springboard opens up new possibilities. For instance, you can trade MP3s with other Visor owners via IR (maybe you can already do this with the Pocket PC).

Pocket PCs definitely have better displays, and if MS can get them into competitively price hardware, the average consumer will actually care. It's open source OS notwithstanding, I think the Yopy is as overengineered and expensive as WinCE hardware, and will suffer the same fate.

Gameboy,
You can't trade MP3 files on any platform via IR, at least not if you like standing in front of the same person for over an hour and not have any battery power left at the end of the exchange!

I don't think InnoGear has to worry about their name with products like the SixPak. I think it's great that I can keep it in the Visor so I don't have to keep track of two different things, or take it out if I want to use another module and still listen to music. I still don't see what the problem is.

As for resolution, I don't think anyone is going to say that the current PalmOS is perfect and doesn't need any change. Supposedly OS 3.5 allows different resolutions. Here's hoping the next Visor has a higher resolution and better interoperability among the main applications.

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James Hromadka
VisorCentral.com
Personal Website: http://www.Hromadka.com

Can I chime in again? I realize a lot of this is just speculative, but with technology changing so rapidly I can�t help but wonder how the PDA will �evolve.� One question I have is, Will there eventually be a universal OS for any and all handheld devices? Dare I say a monopoly? Palm has passed their OS on to some of the cell phone companies. Good for them. But now we have household appliances getting in on the action. Will Palm�s OS be a part of my next Whirlpool dishwasher or my GE refrigerator? Will it one day be a part of my next VW Jetta?

Ultimately, whether I like it or not, I think Microsoft has the muscle to move aggressively into many of these arenas. I haven�t seen much of that muscle from Palm. Up until I read about their partnership with some of the cell phone companies, they seemed fairly content with equating a structural change in their handhelds to an improvement/upgrade. Ooooo, wow � now it comes in aluminum!

We seem to have a fetish with �linking up.� And I�m not talking about linking up our PDA to an MP3 player, pager, and Tiger Woods PGA Golf. I�m talking about linking up to *everything*. Assuming this will eventually happen, it would be complete chaos for us consumers if we were limited to certain brands/companies based on the OS they use. I can only have Whirlpool, Mazda, and Zenith because only they use the Palm OS. My neighbor, on the other hand, decided to go with GE, Toyota, and RCA because they use Microsoft�s OS.

Whichever OS can partner/merge the fastest will be the only one left standing after the dust settles. My money is on Microsoft. Hopefully what I�ve heard is true � Handspring will change OS if they foresee the need.

It�s all speculative, I know, but that�s where the world is headed. Trust me. I have a gift for this sort of thing.

BTW � feel free to visit us in the �Off Topic� forum. Davydd made a good point about the recent e-book craze.

Here's a bunch of screenshots of WinCE 3.0 from WiredGuy.com:
http://www.wiredguy.com/reviews/sr/pocketapps/index.htm

You will find that all of the pundits saying the PalmOS is dead, MS is going to destroy it will be wrong again. There is room for more than one OS in the handheld market. As I said before, some will want WinCE and some will want the PalmOS.

Oh for the days when cell phones actually made phone calls instead of browsing the web

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James Hromadka
VisorCentral.com
Personal Website: http://www.Hromadka.com

James,

I agree! you'll notice at the beginning of this topic section I said the same thing. The only contention I have is that the Pocket PC will mark the beginning of the end of Palm dominance in the market. Right now they have a 75-80% share with Microsoft 15%. That is almost certain to change, partly at Palm's cost. I'm not the only one who feels this way either. If you've read the latest news stories on CNET News.com, one story posted that both IDC (International Data Corp.), and the Giga Information Group report an expected 48% market share for Microsoft within the next 2 years.

Foo


[This message has been edited by foo fighter (edited 03-27-2000).]

I haven't followed Giga's research, but I can't take IDC's projections seriously. A year ago they projected a 58% share for MS. They fact that they've hedged their bet by only 10% seems a little conservative. By the way, between 1998 and 1999, CE declined from 15% to 10%.

IDC doesn't understand that people won't buy a $500 product simply because it has a Windows logo on it, especially when they can get entry-level Palms and Visors for $150 (they didn't even buy the comparably-priced Everex Freestyle, now discontinued). The general public doesn't think of PDAs as computers, but as consumer electronics devices. That's why they don't care about the low-resolution screen (remember my analogy of the four-function calculator with special fonts) -- it's perfectly adequate for looking up appointments and phone numbers, jotting down notes, etc. It's a tool, not a conversation piece. I realize that many computer insiders (i.e. not the average consumer) see the handheld platform evolving into desktop functionality, and for them the Pocket PC will be the right choice. But that's not the majority of the market, and that's why CE remains a small niche.