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-- Handspring Plunge (http://discussion.visorcentral.com/vcforum/showthread.php?threadid=17946)
Posted by Keefer Lucas on 08-29-2001 06:03 PM:
Handspring Plunge
As Handspring's share price dips below $3 a share, and its market cap threatens to go below $300M it is more than fair to ask if our beloved Handspring will even be around in six months.
I am afraid that if the company felt that the new features of their two soon-to-be introduced models were that compelling the company would have launched weeks ago; an alternative theory is that the Edge isn't selling as planned, and that these new models are being rushed out before production and support are fully planned (remember the original Visor launch).
I am strongly considering an upgrade to one of the new models, but I have to say that the company's dwindling financial fortunes are forcing me to look at either a Palm product or even -- gasp-- an iPaq.
I don't want to be a nattering naybob of negitivity, but over the past year and a half almost every tech company I have embraced has gone down the tubes, along with a chorus merrily gurgling the company's praises as the ship finally slips beneath the surface (as he writes on his Gateway system).
Lets hope this ship gets turned around.
Posted by Techie2000 on 08-29-2001 07:55 PM:
No!
I hope they don't die. I love Handspring and believe there products are superior to Palms. If HS died than I would probably get a CLIE or TRG over Palm products. I think palm should concentrate on the OS. We love you and need you Handspring!
Posted by MarkEagle on 08-29-2001 09:38 PM:
I think that if Handspring were to fall that far, someone would step in and buy them. The products and technology are just too good to be allowed to die.
__________________
God bless America, my home sweet home...
Posted by PDAddict on 08-29-2001 10:30 PM:
Re: Handspring Plunge
quote:
Originally posted by Keefer Lucas
I am strongly considering an upgrade to one of the new models, but I have to say that the company's dwindling financial fortunes are forcing me to look at either a Palm product or even -- gasp-- an iPaq.
I don't understand at all why anyone would use this as a reason to buy or not by a Handspring device. You either like their stuff or you don't.
Since it is based on the PalmOS, apps aren't an issue. Since it has no flash anyway, OS upgrades aren't an issue (maybe an update but the OS's are pretty stable anyway). And if you are worried about parts and such, the only real issue there are the screens and those will be available for a long time.
Prospects for Handsprings future simply don't matter in the decision to buy a PDA. Once you buy it, it's yours. How often have you interacted with whomever created any PDAs you may now own?
This is a non issue.
Posted by Keefer Lucas on 08-29-2001 10:40 PM:
Re: Re: Handspring Plunge
quote:
Originally posted by PDAddict
How often have you interacted with whomever created any PDAs you may now own?
That number, specifically, would be three within the past year, each time resulting in the waranteed replacement of parts, or the entire unit.
One of the chief reasons for "buying in" to the Handspring product line is the availability of a broad range of proprietary Springboard modules, of which I own three. Handspring going out of business would halt any further Springboard development and support (in fact, I assume that it already has greatly curtailed development investments).
On a going forward basis the open standard (well relatively) of the MMC card would become much more appealing were it not for the installed base of Handspring units.
So I continue on hold. And if I wait until Christmas maybe I will get lucky.
Posted by yardie on 08-30-2001 12:25 AM:
I agree
quote:
Originally posted by MarkEagle
I think that if Handspring were to fall that far, someone would step in and buy them. The products and technology are just too good to be allowed to die.
I agree with MarkEagle. Handspring isn't going anywhere any time soon. Stock price means nothing...Look at Palm. There stock price is not much better than Handspring!..BTW I will be buying HS stock...too bad I didn't buy yesterday before the 80 cent pop today.
Posted by Keefer Lucas on 08-30-2001 01:53 AM:
This ain't no Party. This ain't no Disco
quote:
Originally posted by yardie
Stock price means nothing...Look at Palm. There stock price is not much better than Handspring.
Yes, but Palm's market cap is still four times larger. If Handspring were seen as an attractive aquisition target they would have been scooped up already.
Most importantly, its not users who have given up on Handspring, but investors. Money has flown out of Palm and Palm OS manufacturers. By comparison, Compaq (with a market cap of $22B to Palms $2B and HAND's .3B) trades at a mere 40% discount to its 52 week high. Handspring's current discount is 98%.
This scene would be somewhat different if Handspring had an anemic share price but a considerable market cap. Handspring's stock is close to penny trading range and their market cap is so low that Merv Griffin could write a check for the company, and name the new model "the Merv".
I predict a Handspring unit with Pocket PC by next summer...if the company lasts that long.
Posted by yardie on 08-30-2001 03:14 AM:
Boy oh Boy
Man you are negative.
You seem to be the only one that think Handspring is in trouble. People who are in the know (stock brokers and analysts) know that Handspring ain't going anywhere.
Posted by hog on 08-30-2001 06:13 AM:
I also
I too dumped Handsprings stock because I've
decided in this past year that
Dubinsky and Hawkins have shed all
their creativity in their past.
Or they're too rich to give a $#!T anymore.
Prism? Platinum? Edge? Give me an effing
break: my aging VDX is as good as any of these
pieces of crap. I guess we'll be seeing you
guys in the bankruptcy columns of WSJ.
Posted by knoppi on 08-30-2001 08:00 AM:
i think hs has to bee more innovative, or they went into trouble.
most important fact for me is, all we want to see from a hs device, a win ce device almost have. high resolution display and so on. hs is still too slow in developing new innovative devices because of their finances. sony is able to announce three new devices within 6 month.
i�m going with keefer lucas. wether hs is not be able to annouce a really impressive new device this fall i will perhaps purchase another palm (a cli�?) or an ipaq. i really don�t want so, but what should i do?
wether the new treo is real with this specs, the treo will be a worse selling device. why only 900MHz/1900 MHz??? have a look at the german manufacturer siemens. they are going to announce a similar device, but what for specs! triband, always online with gprs (allows you to surf the web with 56k) a win ce build in organizer, very well design and so on.
handspring hurry up. i don�t want to buy a wince device!!!!!
Posted by Keefer Lucas on 08-30-2001 12:11 PM:
Re: Boy oh Boy
quote:
Originally posted by yardie
Man you are negative.
You seem to be the only one that think Handspring is in trouble. People who are in the know (stock brokers and analysts) know that Handspring ain't going anywhere.
Handspring's institutional investment has dropped below 30% (Palm and Compaq's top 60%), a threshhold which translates roughly to "those in the know" running far and fast from the stock.
Lets not call it being negative; lets just say that I've lost whatever irrational exuberance that I walked in with.
Posted by thorin on 08-30-2001 12:17 PM:
Re: I also
quote:
Originally posted by hog
I too dumped Handsprings stock because I've
decided in this past year that
Dubinsky and Hawkins have shed all
their creativity in their past.
Or they're too rich to give a $#!T anymore.
Prism? Platinum? Edge? Give me an effing
break: my aging VDX is as good as any of these
pieces of crap. I guess we'll be seeing you
guys in the bankruptcy columns of WSJ.
One of my teachers once told me that the best way to make money on the stock market is to buy low and sell high. ...duh.
But people almost always do the opposite. oh no, handspring's stock is going down! I better sell [at a loss]. I dont know, of course, what you bought and sold at. if you bought at 90$ and sold when it hit 50, maybe that was for the best. if it ever hits 90 agin, it sure wont be soon. But I think now would be the ideal time to buy. of course, you are also supposed to 'diversify your portfolio'. but the deal is, is that the stock market is ALWAYS going up. sure there are crashes, but in the end it always gets better then it ever was. If it didn't, well, there'd be bigger problems than just your stock portfolio.
Of course, ive never invested in my life, or even read any books on the subject, so its really just me shooting off my mouth.
Although, if you think theyll be bankrupt anytime soon, you must have some inside info that we dont. YAHOO finance had this consolidation of market analysts options:
Strong Buy 0
Buy 8
Hold 11
Sell 0
Strong Sell 0
http://biz.yahoo.com/z/a/h/hand.html__________________
-thorin
I have a webcomic. You should read it, or I may do something rash. <b><a href=http://driveby.keenspace.com/>Drive-by Loitering</a></b> is updated every monday, wednesday and friday.
<!img src=http://www.frontfly.com/myrouter/vcsig2.gif alt="Soundsgood is too elite for the punks."><img src=http://www.frontfly.com/vcsig.gif ><!img src=http://www.frontfly.com/myrouter/vcsig2.gif alt="Soundsgood is too elite for the punks.">
Posted by knoppi on 08-30-2001 12:54 PM:
thorin,
this is what i have found:
current 1 Month Ago 3 Months Ago
STRONG BUY 2 2 1
BUY 8 8 5
HOLD 11 10 4
UNDERPERFORM 0 0 0
SELL 0 0 0
MEAN BUY BUY BUY
cbs.marketwatch.com
Posted by hloakes on 08-30-2001 02:52 PM:
quote:
Originally posted by knoppi
sony is able to announce three new devices within 6 month.
Didn't I see somewhere that Sony is having financial problems?__________________
Howard
Posted by jsbernstein on 08-30-2001 04:57 PM:
Re: This ain't no Party. This ain't no Disco
quote:
Originally posted by Keefer Lucas
Most importantly, its not users who have given up on Handspring, but investors. Money has flown out of Palm and Palm OS manufacturers. By comparison, Compaq (with a market cap of $22B to Palms $2B and HAND's .3B) trades at a mere 40% discount to its 52 week high. Handspring's current discount is 98%.
Is it really fair to compare Handspring's market cap or other valuation measure to Compaq's (or Sony's for that matter)? Handspring is essentially dedicated to producing PDA's. Compaq has a much more diversified product line. Same with Sony. Yes, both of those companies produce devices that compete with Handspring's, but their valuations are based on more than just the PDA product lines.
IMHO, comparisons to Palm are more palatable, but still not ideal, since Palm generates revenue from licensing the OS as well. Handspring lacks a comparable revenue stream, unless they charge a licensing fee for the Springboard. I don't know if they do or not, but even if they do, I'd guess (based on no research whatsoever) that it's still less revenue than Palm makes off of the OS.
I understand the concern about the decline in Handspring's stock price and overall valuation, but I think comparisons to much bigger and more diversified companies confuse the discussion more than they aid it. If the PDA units of Compaq or Sony (or even Palm) had tracking stocks or some other way of comparing their valuation separately from their parent companies, then it would be a different story. Right now, I don't think this is the case (although someone please correct me if I'm wrong). I think I remember hearing that Compaq was planning to spin off the iPaq business or create a tracking stock for it, but I don't know if that's still in the works. Maybe someone else knows more.
Jeff
Posted by Corky on 09-06-2001 05:06 AM:
quote:
Originally posted by hloakes
Didn't I see somewhere that Sony is having financial problems?
I think that the Dixie Chicks are going to take down the MAN.
Down, Mr. Man, Down!
Maybe they can sue Micro$oft next.
__________________
Pocket PCs, Palm... next victim, MS Windows!
Posted by Keefer Lucas on 09-06-2001 05:46 PM:
Re: Re: This ain't no Party. This ain't no Disco
quote:
Originally posted by jsbernstein
Is it really fair to compare Handspring's market cap or other valuation measure to Compaq's (or Sony's for that matter)? Handspring is essentially dedicated to producing PDA's.
No, the comparison isn't fair, but the fact that Compaq (now Compaq/HP) and Sony can invest hundreds of millions more in PDA development than Handspring and Palm is incontravertable. The realities of this marketplace are brutal. "Business can not live on innovation alone (atleast not for long)."
Simply put, we are looking at Apple (a leading Palm/Handspring suitor) revisited. The product line and the OS will continue to live on...in the relative margins of the marketplace, and outside the realm of the lucrative and dependable corporate IT market. Then the development of innovative third party apps slows to a trickle...and you find yourself staring lustfully at an iPaq by Q4 FY 2003.
Another Microsoft victim.
Posted by foo fighter on 09-06-2001 06:08 PM:
Re: Handspring Plunge
quote:
Originally posted by Keefer Lucas
...but over the past year and a half almost every tech company I have embraced has gone down the tubes, along with a chorus merrily gurgling the company's praises as the ship finally slips beneath the surface (as he writes on his Gateway system).
LOL! Great analogy. I haven't stopped laughing since I first read that statement 
As for the future of Handspring...I don't think there is any question the company is in grave jeopardy. And not just from the slumping economy either. HS's product strategy hasn't panned out the way they initially planned. The Edge, while cool, was a complete flop. Springboard, as an expansion platform, seems to be dying, along with companies making the modules. And their existing product line has lost its edge (pardon the pun).
Just like you, I try not to be negative, but Hawkins hasn't impressed me since the inception of the original Visor Deluxe back in 99. Instead of becoming a radical innovative leader in the PDA space, as I thought they would, Handspring became nothing more than a cheap clone maker of PalmOS handhelds. Look how SONY revolutionized the Palm platform in as little as 12 months. Where was Handspring during this time? Is Hawkins still the innovator he once was? I don't think so.
Will HS die? Possibly, but before that time comes I would assume some greater power will swoop down and pick up the pieces. Sadly, my recommendation for the new owners would be to fire Jeff Hawkins, possible Dubinsky as well.__________________
My blog: Pocketfactory
Posted by chesswrangler on 09-06-2001 06:36 PM:
Foo Fighter wrote: "Will HS die? Possibly, but before that time comes I would assume some greater power will swoop down and pick up the pieces. "
What happens to Handspring stock if someone else buys them? I am considering a stock purchase. I figure either HS is going to go belly-up or the stock is going to rebound after the holidays.
Thoughts?
__________________
- Don -
"Are you suggesting that coconuts migrate?"
Posted by foo fighter on 09-06-2001 06:58 PM:
quote:
Originally posted by chesswrangler
What happens to Handspring stock if someone else buys them?
Difficult to say. Technically it should trend upward from the infusion of cash into the company's coffers. On the other hand it could get hammered the same way HP and Compaq's stocks are receiving from investors, just one day after the merger announcement. Right now HAND is just above $2. But if it hits $1...Handspring could face delisting from Nasdaq. That alone would kill the company
quote:
I am considering a stock purchase. I figure either HS is going to go belly-up or the stock is going to rebound after the holidays.
I wouldn't touch either Palm or HS's stock with a ten foot stylus right now. Too volatile for my blood. My advice is to ride it out and see which way the road takes the company. Or if they become roadkill.__________________
My blog: Pocketfactory
