VisorCentral.com - MP3 down in the polls

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VisorCentral.com (http://discussion.visorcentral.com/vcforum/index.php)
- Visor & Deluxe (http://discussion.visorcentral.com/vcforum/forumdisplay.php?forumid=1)
-- MP3 down in the polls (http://discussion.visorcentral.com/vcforum/showthread.php?threadid=8395)

Posted by yucca on 10-02-2000 01:20 PM:

Is MP3 a vital PDA feature? I'm one of the ones who doesn't think so; but, until now, there has been little to back this up. A poll on PDABuzz asked the following question: "Which PDA feature is most important to you?" The range of available responses includeded a fairly complete list of PDA capabilities, and MP3 was chosen by fewer than 2% of the more than 1000 folks who participated. Participants were more than twice as likely to choose "games" over MP3! As an aside, this should be great news for PDA game developers - almost 5% of those taking this poll actually thought that games were more important than traditional PDA features. For the full monty, see - http://www.pdabuzz.com/ [NOTE: this link won't get you these particular poll results as soon as PDABuzz publishes their next poll results!]

Now, I'll be the first to admit that the above poll is hardly definitive. Just because MP3 grabbed less than 2% of the vote, it doesn't follow that MP3 is irrelevent. On-line polls, like the ones here and on PDABuzz, are neither terribly representative of the folk interested in PDAs, nor even representative of web site visitors. Also, poll results for a topic such as this would be more useful if the poll taker were allowed to rank order their choices, if the poll allowed one to categorize the capabilities (essential, useful, interesting [if I don't have to pay much for it], not useful, etc.), or if the poll allowed one choose how much more one would be willing to pay to add a capability to a PDA.

Anyway, this should at least encourage "the Visor sucks because MP3 modules are too expensive" crowd to be alittle less strident.

Posted by homer on 10-02-2000 04:38 PM:

I'd like to hear from people that actually use MP3 players...are they really that practicle to take with you everywhere? It seems like the most music you can get on these things is maybe 2 hours...I'd get tired of that limitation pretty quickly.

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Posted by John Nowak on 10-02-2000 05:06 PM:

quote:
Originally posted by homer
It seems like the most music you can get on these things is maybe 2 hours...I'd get tired of that limitation pretty quickly.

I tend to agree with you. However, it's pretty easy to erase and reload the player, so we're really talking about an hour or two of music between trips to your PC. If you only listen to one CD a day at work, this is pretty much sufficient.

Personally, I don't listen to a lot of music MP3s; I'm more likely to listen to old time radio shows (especially Jack Benny -- oh, that Mary!). Since these are voice recordings of usually fairly low quality, the MP3s generally work out to about 200k per minute. This means you can put about five hours on a 64 meg card, which makes the MP3 option a lot more attractive.

Another bit that comes up in favor of MP3s is the fact most MP3 players are solid-state devices that can be shocked without skipping, but most portable CD players nowadays also have an antishock feature that stores a few seconds of music. Besides, I have to say that jogging or biking with a walkman is pretty foolish -- I'd prefer to be able to hear the car honking its horn behind me.

Posted by Gameboy70 on 10-02-2000 07:57 PM:

quote:
Originally posted by yucca
A poll on PDABuzz asked the following question: "Which PDA feature is most important to you?" The range of available responses includeded a fairly complete list of PDA capabilities, and MP3 was chosen by fewer than 2% of the more than 1000 folks who participated.

What distinguishes the poll is that the query was done as an open-ended question. I'm sure that if you asked people if MP3 was an important feature to have in a PDA, the "yes" respondents would've fallen somewhere between 30-40%. Ditto for a multiple-choice poll. The open-ended approach is much more telling than asking loaded questions.

I agree with the majority on this one: MP3 playback isn't a deciding factor in my choice of products. 64MB isn't enough storage for me anyway. Homer's right: two hours just doesn't cut it. With my MTrip player, I can play 650MB of MP3 on a CD-R burned from my PC. But the killer player is the 6GB Nomad Jukebox. Both of these products are the size of a normal portable CD player, and offer much more bang for the buck. As much as I like the Springboard concept, I'm a big believe in getting the right tool for the job.

Posted by yucca on 10-03-2000 12:49 AM:

Originally posted by Gameboy70

quote:
What distinguishes the poll is that the query was done as an open-ended question. I'm sure that if you asked people if MP3 was an important feature to have in a PDA, the "yes" respondents would've fallen somewhere between 30-40%. Ditto for a multiple-choice poll. The open-ended approach is much more telling than asking loaded question

We agree that the poll was far from ideal for the purposes of establishing just how many folk want MP3. However, as I said, I thought it was telling that twice as many folk chose games over MP3. Out of curiosity, where do you get that 30-40% figure? Perhaps your coming from the angle of those who would want MP3 if the additional cost were small? In any event, the question is really how many potential PDA owners are willing to opt for MP3 at current prices (either via a PocketPC or via a Visor + MP3 SB).

If you consider current PDA purchasing as an indicator and if you are very generous, at best I can see 20% opting for MP3 at the current prices. My estimate assumes that all PocketPC purchases are made to get MP3 (not likely at all), adds in MiniJam/SoundsGood (again generously assuming that 10% of Visor owners are going get an MP3 module at current prices), and then I round up to the nearest round number. My estimate is faulty in that I'm sure that some folks settle for a Palm OS device because they just can't get an PocketPC device (at any price), but I believe that I'm more than compensating for this with my favorable item by item estimates.

In any event, it would be interesting if someone would conduct a poll that better gauges the demand for MP3 in PDAs. How about it James/Marcus?

[Edited by yucca on 10-02-2000 at 08:04 PM]

Posted by Gameboy70 on 10-03-2000 02:42 AM:

quote:
Out of curiosity, where do you get that 30-40% figure? Perhaps your coming from the angle of those who would want MP3 if the additional cost were small?

My point was that there's a world of difference between asking someone, "What's the most important thing to have in a PDA?" and, "Is having MP3 in a PDA important to you?" The former question demands that people think for themselves. The latter question only requires a reaction. And, being lazy, fewer people are likely to turn down a Good Thing and consider the tradeoffs in price, system resources, etc.

Besides, I seem to remember a VC poll of anticipated modules that put the MiniJam as the #2 most coveted module, just after the SixPak (I think the MJ scored something like 44%).

Posted by BudPritchard on 10-03-2000 02:59 AM:

Also throw into the mix:
http://www.iomega.com/hipzip/index2.html
Priced at $299.95. Also serves as an external storage device.

Posted by yucca on 10-03-2000 03:44 AM:

Originally posted by Gameboy70

quote:
My point was that there's a world of difference between asking someone, "What's the most important thing to have in a PDA?" and, "Is having MP3 in a PDA important to you?"

I've never disagreed with you on this issue. If you reread my original message, you'll see that I recognize this as well . . .

quote:
Besides, I seem to remember a VC poll of anticipated modules that put the MiniJam as the #2 most coveted module, just after the SixPak (I think the MJ scored something like 44%).

http://www.visorcentral.com/news.php3?id=343

The MiniJam was #1 at 33%. However, this was before the howls of dismay over the cost of the thing (and the missing capabilities!!) . . . the poll being done in April.

This was another poll where you only had one choice (so it is subject to the same criticisms as the PDABuzz poll), and it only concerned modules that hadn't been released yet. So it didn't include the modem module, backup module or the 8MB flash memory module.

Posted by John Nowak on 10-03-2000 04:48 PM:

quote:
Originally posted by yucca
[QUOTE]The MiniJam was #1 at 33%. However, this was before the howls of dismay over the cost of the thing (and the missing capabilities!!) . . . the poll being done in April. This was another poll where you only had one choice (so it is subject to the same criticisms as the PDABuzz poll), and it only concerned modules that hadn't been released yet. So it didn't include the modem module, backup module or the 8MB flash memory module.

Also, at the time the MiniJam's feature list was much more impressive; it was going to combine voice recording and memory expansion onto the MMC cards. That leaves it very ambiguous as to which feature people were most interested in.

Posted by [email protected] on 10-05-2000 07:47 PM:

Maybe we should reverse this

Maybe we should reverse this idea. Instead of using PDAs that flash memory style cards (CF, Memory Sticks, Sprinboards) and use the external storage cards to store MP3s, ebooks, etc maybe the PDA manufacturers should look to making the smallest, lightest hard-disks possible and using them has the basis of the device.

The fact is that now that MP3 players with hard disks have arrived the MP3 market will fragment into two sections:

1) Smaller, and smaller walkman-style players for running, exercising, etc. They should store an hours worth of music and from their downloadable cousins the

2) personal library, hard-disk MP3 players. Some will be small, some will be large depending upon the capacity needs. Almost all will use Lithium-ion batteries because using disposables will not provide enought battery life.

The problem is that a PDA is probably too large a form factor for #1 and really who wants to take a PDA out while exercising. So I think that eventually PDAs will start having hard-disks so they can add more functionality. PDAs might start to morph into portable library devices.

Posted by [email protected] on 10-05-2000 10:17 PM:

ibm makes 340meg hard drives that will fit in compactflash slots with an adapter.

Posted by [email protected] on 10-06-2000 02:01 PM:

About the microdrive

Yes, IBM does have the Microdrive but anyone who has used it for extended periods knows that it can really drain the battery if you keep using (like you would if you used it for MP3s). Besides the Microdrive's maximum capacity currently is 1MB. That is 1/6 the capacity of smallest hard-disk based jukebox players.

PDAs are going to have to have rechargable, lithium-ion style batteries and are going to have to be able to compete with the portable, hard-disk based MP3 players. How they will beat those players are by offering more than these players have. The ability not only to offer music but e-books and to save documents. PDAs are going to be squeezed on two sides, telephone PDAs (Microsoft Stinger) and the large jukebox style MP3 players. People are going to carry all this stuff and eventually they want to cut down the amount that they carry.

Posted by yucca on 10-06-2000 07:38 PM:

Re: About the microdrive

Originally posted by [email protected]

quote:
Yes, IBM does have the Microdrive but anyone who has used it for extended periods knows that it can really drain the battery if you keep using (like you would if you used it for MP3s).

Yes, but it consumes much less power than than the smallest of the conventional hard drives used in notebook computers. Thus you need far less space and weight for power, and this makes it possible to have a more compact (and lighter!) device.

quote:
Besides the Microdrive's maximum capacity currently is 1MB. That is 1/6 the capacity of smallest hard-disk based jukebox players.

I'm sure that was a typo, the current maximum is 1GB. Shouldn't this be more than enough capacity for most folk? That gig should get you through the commute and a typical work day. Am I missing something?

quote:
PDAs are going to be squeezed on two sides, telephone PDAs (Microsoft Stinger) and the large jukebox style MP3 players.

I agree that Palm is getting squeezed, but I doubt the near term viability of Microsoft's Stinger. Symbian has got them trumped with devices that are actually shipping, and a more coherent strategy (multiple form factors with the same OS). For the curious, see - http://www.symbian.com/technology/devices/devices.html

There was some discussion of this here on VC in the late winter or early spring. At that time, there was some concensus that the greatest threat to Palm was not Microsoft, it was Symbian. If you also consider the advent of web pads, Transmeta Crusoe powered ultra-low power notebooks (or tablets) and the PocketPC, Palm-based devices are in for a fight just to survive. Can Palm extend the OS to encompass more than just the PDA space, or will they find a way to make the PDA the keystone for personal networked devices?

quote:
People are going to carry all this stuff and eventually they want to cut down the amount that they carry.

Given the "no compromise" demands that so many people have expressed, the closest thing we currently have to a do-it-all device is the notebook computer!

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