VisorCentral.com - Springboard Module Manufacturers have been hit a low blow

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-- Springboard Module Manufacturers have been hit a low blow (http://discussion.visorcentral.com/vcforum/showthread.php?threadid=20858)

Posted by jonecool on 01-16-2002 04:39 AM:

Springboard Module Manufacturers have been hit a low blow

It was along time coming, but Handspring finally was able to get enough hardware developers to make a nice mix of Springboard modules. I'm curious to know what the manufacturers of Springboard modules have to say about Donna's decision to discontinue the Visor product line? I mean what good are the MemPlug's without a Visor? How about Xircom Modules? Voice Recorders? Eyemodules? No new sales of Visors means no new sales in Modules!!! This will certainly impact the "Palm Economy" in a negative way.

If Handspring drops the Visor line, are they not doing the same to the manufactuers of these modules? In doing this, aren't they making allot of enemies? Can Handspring afford this? Isn't this statement a bit pre-mature coming from Donna when she has no realistic knowledge of what TREO sales are actually going to amount to? I'm not saying she's not bright, she obviously is, but you just really don't know until the device is on the market. Today, it hasn't made it there!

What's going to happen when one day Handspring decides to add an expansion module to the TREO (or SD slot) and no one signs up to build hardware for it because they were burned on the Visor Springboard? One thing Handspring needs to keep in mind, if it wasn't for the development community (hardware and Software), people would have little choice and be buying PPC's instead (Ouch, that hurt to say).

I believe Handspring is on the right track with the TREO, but it's not good for those who have supported Handspring's Springboard slot and invested in that technology (Manufaturers as well as customers). I'm concerned, very concerned about this statement. I think it is VERY premature given economic conditions and basing it on a product that hasn't even hit the market.

It also means the beginning of the end for VisorCentral. Afterall, if they don't sell Visors, their support will soon drop as will innovation. Who's going to build new modules for a discontinued product? Advertisers and customers will soon lose interest, as will readers of VC.

My .02 worth.

Posted by acajigas on 01-16-2002 06:16 AM:

I've been following the latest news from Handspring and I'm not surprise at all that HS is leaving the Visor line. Come one people... why do you think PalmGear sold many springboards at such a low price at the end of last year? Why do you think we haven't seen a new Color PDA, a year later after the Prism was released? Something that really made me think that HS was abandoning the Visor line was Hawkin's statment at COMDEX. He said that the feature of PDAs is wireless and that they may stop making Visors in the feature. As you know HS is not doing well with the current Visor sells, on the other side the Treo looks like the best gadget of 2002. Now if you add the latest release of Sony's Clie T615c to the picture we have a clear winner. HS has no place in the stand-alone PDA market. Sony is killing Handspring releasing one PDA after another, while Palm is trying to catch up with a new 5.0 OS device.

Seeing all that I went ahead last year a sold most of my Prism gear except for my Prism, MemPlug and stowaway keyboard, which for my taste were the best accesories for the Visor.

The bad thing about it is that VC will gradually decay. I really like VC and I think VC should open its board to all Palm OS devices.

As you see everything is about money and HS is moving to a better area where they have a chance of making great deal of money. I don't hate HS for stopping production of the Visor line, but I don't think it was a wise idea to tell everybody that the Visor line will be abandoned.

Good luck HS with the Treo, but I'm sorry I'm not falling again on the same trick.

Al

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Posted by thorin on 01-16-2002 06:37 AM:

OTOH... if they made then next treos with springboard attachments... that would ROCK!

heh.. i dont usually find myslef so optomistic, but i hav'nt heard anything pecifically stating the springboard had no future...

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Posted by jonecool on 01-16-2002 06:49 AM:

quote:
... but i hav'nt heard anything pecifically stating the springboard had no future... [/B]

Let's see. They will discontinue the Visor and the TREO has no Springboard. That seems pretty clear to me.

** Unless **
Handspring is trying to gauge the importance of the Springboard based on our comments. That is, trying to determine if developing a Springboard sled for the TREO is a viable option for them (or perhaps such a device already exists and will be released in concert with the TREO).

Depending on the hardware design of the TREO, it may be possible that they were thinking ahead and designed in a means of allowing an optional accessory that would allow a Springboard Sled of some sort to be attached to the HotSync connector(afterall, it does appear to be a new design). The only drawback is that the Com modules wouldn't work-but who would care since this is built-in to the unit anywas, other modules such as GPS, Eyemodules and MemPlugs "should" be possible. I could imagine something that snaps on the bottom and modules would plug into the back of the TREO.

If this is the case, then perhaps they haven't shot themselves in the foot as bad as one might think and they could discontinue the Visor without saying they screwed up on the whole Springboard concept. However, if they didn't design the TREO with a possibility of Expansion(even external), then that was a very big mistake, in my opinion and it should have not been mentioned this early in the game.

Posted by Gameboy70 on 01-16-2002 08:12 AM:

jonecool wrote:
I believe Handspring is on the right track with the TREO, but it's not good for those who have supported Handspring's Springboard slot and invested in that technology (Manufaturers as well as customers). I'm concerned, very concerned about this statement. I think it is VERY premature given economic conditions and basing it on a product that hasn't even hit the market.

Not to mention very irresponsible. Dubinsky will have to elaborate at some point in the near future about the long-term future of the Springboard, as opposed to the Visor line itself. She might have had a longer time frame in mind for the transition than we're inferring. If so, she needs to work on her communication skills.

If Handspring drops the Visor line, are they not doing the same to the manufactuers of these modules? In doing this, aren't they making allot of enemies? Can Handspring afford this? Isn't this statement a bit pre-mature coming from Donna when she has no realistic knowledge of what TREO sales are actually going to amount to?

More than a bit premature. It would've been nice to see how the Treo sold after a quarter or two to back up her bravado with something tangible.

acajigas wrote:
Something that really made me think that HS was abandoning the Visor line was Hawkin's statment at COMDEX. He said that the feature of PDAs is wireless and that they may stop making Visors in the feature [sic].

The line of Hawkins that really hooked into me from Comdex was his extrapolation of the PDA's future: "HP still sells calculators."

Selling a lot of PDAs in today's market doesn't necessarily amount to profitability. Consumers who already own a handheld are either satisfied with the current capabilities of their products (I know a ton of people who still use and are happy with older Palms) or want more features that either raise production costs (thinning profit margins) or raise retail costs. Consumers who don't see why they should pay anything beyond double digits for an address book (yeah, try explaining to them how much more it does) will only be induced by lower prices -- again, lowering profit margins.

Sony possibily has the capital to reach escape velocity against those market dynamics, but for a smaller company like Handspring, standalone PDAs aren't a profitable trade.

HS has no place in the stand-alone PDA market. Sony is killing Handspring releasing one PDA after another, while Palm is trying to catch up with a new 5.0 OS device.

Exactly. As Dubinsky once said about the earliest years of Palm Computing, realizing that its mission to develop software for the king of PDAs, the Newton, was a mistake, "We realized that we didn't want to be leaders in a dying market."

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Posted by thorin on 01-16-2002 08:52 AM:

quote:
Originally posted by jonecool

Let's see. They will discontinue the Visor and the TREO has no Springboard. That seems pretty clear to me.

** Unless **
Handspring is trying to gauge the importance of the Springboard based on our comments. That is, trying to determine if developing a Springboard sled for the TREO is a viable option for them (or perhaps such a device already exists and will be released in concert with the TREO).

Depending on the hardware design of the TREO, it may be possible that they were thinking ahead and designed in a means of allowing an optional accessory that would allow a Springboard Sled of some sort to be attached to the HotSync connector(afterall, it does appear to be a new design). The only drawback is that the Com modules wouldn't work-but who would care since this is built-in to the unit anywas, other modules such as GPS, Eyemodules and MemPlugs "should" be possible. I could imagine something that snaps on the bottom and modules would plug into the back of the TREO.

If this is the case, then perhaps they haven't shot themselves in the foot as bad as one might think and they could discontinue the Visor without saying they screwed up on the whole Springboard concept. However, if they didn't design the TREO with a possibility of Expansion(even external), then that was a very big mistake, in my opinion and it should have not been mentioned this early in the game.

Like i said, nothing specific. however, if you are right, sb manufacturers may be out of luck, i don' think they're that screwed. after all, springboards have been low volume and fairly high priced. So I don't think anything like this will happen to IDEO(eyemodule) and others. yes, some companies are going to be left scrabbling, but such is progress.

And honestly, i think the MAJORITY of visor owners never bought, and never will buy any springboards. just like most people i've met with gameboys only have either super mario or tetris, and nothing else. So on the consumer side of things, I hardly think this is "shooting oneself in the foot".

after all, there is a much bigger market for cellphones the pdas.

Posted by acajigas on 01-16-2002 02:15 PM:

I wrote this at the beginning of december of last year. You can see the whole discussion here http://discussion.visorcentral.com/...hlight=TreoLand

Some people thought I was speculating too much, now guess what...

Handspring and its TreoLand.

I have a bad feeling that Handspring has stopped innovating more Visors and that what ever we have now, will be it. Since they need more money to advertise and promote the Treo, there is no way they will be using that money for the so call "Prism II." I believe they are doing the best thing for their company, but not for Visor consumers. TreoLand is about to open its doors to consumers and Handspring is so happy about it that it makes no sense to also care for VisorLand.

Visors are not dead yet, but they are in their last stage of life where everything still looks great and prices keep getting better and better. However, Sony keeps innovating so fast that Handspring developers can't cach up with them. As you see Handspring cannot handle two lands at the same time.

I'm pretty sure that Mr. Hawkins feels that he can make his wireless dream come true. Probably he will for a while, but them other companies with more cash will produce more and more new devices that Handspring again won't be able to catch up with them.

I believe Handspring should not abandon earlier projects like the Visor in order to improve credibility in their company. Otherwise, consumers will not have a good feeling of been in the right place.

Al

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Posted by dkessler on 01-16-2002 02:39 PM:

quote:
Originally posted by jonecool
** Unless **
Handspring is trying to gauge the importance of the Springboard based on our comments. That is, trying to determine if developing a Springboard sled for the TREO is a viable option for them (or perhaps such a device already exists and will be released in concert with the TREO).

It's extremely unlikely that you'll ever see Springboard capability added to the Treo (or its decendants). My educated guess is that the comm circuitry in the Treo is using the same CPU interface that is needed for the Springboard slot. When someone can finally crack open a Treo, they'll most likely find that, architecturally, the Treo is a Visor with a VisorPhone permanently connected to the Springboard interface. That's why you don't see an Edge style SB connector. They could have made room for it phsically, but the SB interface is already tied up. It would be foolish to design the Treo any other way because HS needs to get maximum reuse out of the VisorPhone R&D. Any deviation from the established and tested architecture would have caused the R&D effort to skyrocket and significantly increased their time-to-market.

If future Handspring devices do regain expansion capability, I predict it will be in the form of an established standard such as SD. Any attempt by Handspring to get developers to adopt a new proprietary HW interface (Springboard II?) would be met with a huge lack of interest.

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Posted by septimus on 01-16-2002 02:56 PM:

I saw the ****storm last night, but waited until this morning to see what the boards here were saying.

it will take a miracle to save handspring now... the springboard is dead. If DKessler--the guy behind the most innovative sb solution in recent history--says so, it is so.

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Posted by Potus on 01-16-2002 03:14 PM:

Another "sign"

Handspring was a HUGE presence at MWX in 2001. I saw my first Prism there and became quite an advocate for the platform. This year: nada. Not a booth. Not a bag. Nada.

tick tock
tick tock

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Posted by foo fighter on 01-16-2002 03:41 PM:

quote:
Originally posted by dietrichbohn
it will take a miracle to save handspring now... the springboard is dead. If DKessler--the guy behind the most innovative sb solution in recent history--says so, it is so.

I hate to say I told you so, but..

I saw this coming back in the spring of 2000, when the first modules started hitting the market. My cries were met with shrugged shoulders when I warned that consumers will never spend $250 or more on a handheld, and then spend another $250-$400 for a "module." If a consumer wants a device that can be used as an MP3 player, they will buy a device that has that feature built-in. It's a shame that so many really brilliant ideas never took off, but those are the hazards faced in the business world.

The biggest mistake that people here make when analyzing Handspring is putting personal emotion before business principles. I keep hearing you guys say that as long as HS keeps making wonderful devices like the Edge, Neo, and Pro...they will be here for the long run. But the reality is that HS doesn't make enough money off these products to stay in business. My prediction that Handspring will go bankrupt may be unpopular, but it is the most likely scenario. Many of you will disagree with that, but you are basing that resistance on your affinity for your Visor. You believe that a company as hyped and well known as Handspring could NEVER go out of business. Unfortunately, they can. Yesterday's announcement should be sobering to everyone as to how bad off Handspring really is.

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Posted by Potus on 01-16-2002 03:47 PM:

quote:
Originally posted by foo fighter

I hate to say I told you so, but..

... Many of you will disagree with that, but you are basing that resistance on your affinity for your Visor. You believe that a company as hyped and well known as Handspring could NEVER go out of business. Unfortunately, they can. Yesterday's announcement should be sobering to everyone as to how bad off Handspring really is.

Too true, Foo.

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Posted by septimus on 01-16-2002 03:52 PM:

quote:
Originally posted by foo fighter
I hate to say I told you so, but..

I always listened and have been fairly receptive to your doom and gloom.

quote:
My prediction that Handspring will go bankrupt may be unpopular, but it is the most likely scenario. Many of you will disagree with that, but you are basing that resistance on your affinity for your Visor. You believe that a company as hyped and well known as Handspring could NEVER go out of business. Unfortunately, they can. Yesterday's announcement should be sobering to everyone as to how bad off Handspring really is.

They aren't in a pretty situation. In fact, I just posted a doom and gloom message myself. However, I do believe that if they stop screwing around and get the treo released and successful (no more missteps), they can survive just fine. I don't think this is based on my emotions, but from a pretty dry analysis of their current state.

Mainly though, I read Ed's reply to your prediction at PIC, here

quote:
Currently, the company's cash and investments balance is $175.5 million, of which $124.8 million was unrestricted. Last quarter, Handspring lost $15.2 million and the quarter before it was $26.2 million. So at absolute worst, the company might lose $30 million a quarter. And that's assuming the Treo utterly flops. That means Handspring is good for at least another year at minimum.

I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle. Handspring could burn through A LOT of cash trying to push the treo out the door quickly, but not so much that they'll falter completely.

right? right? I guess we'll see. As I've been saying, it's all aobut how well they manage the Treo.

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Posted by yardie on 01-17-2002 05:51 AM:

I agree

quote:
Originally posted by thorin
OTOH... if they made then next treos with springboard attachments... that would ROCK!

heh.. i dont usually find myslef so optomistic, but i hav'nt heard anything pecifically stating the springboard had no future...

That is what I am saying. Still it is understandable why people are pessimistic...a lot of companies went belly up and disappoint the past two years.

Posted by EricG on 01-17-2002 06:35 AM:

All good things must eventually end, .. It's been fun.. Bye Handspring, this is where I guess we go our seperate ways..

I don't see myself going the Treo way (not for a very, very long time).. especially not after my yada yada/minstrel experience .. I think I prefer my devices separated and not integrated. Only way I would go "Treo" is if my company gave me one or I could write it off (I don't see either ever happening)

I'll keep using my Prism until something better comes along or it breaks.. right now it does exactly what I need an organizer to do.. (and a little more )

I also fear that the other posters comments will probably ring true, eventually web sites like this one will fall into decay.. (it's too bad , this is a really nice place) , But as I said above, all good things eventually end...

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Posted by ubik on 01-17-2002 09:20 AM:

quote:
Originally posted by foo fighter

I hate to say I told you so, but..

Tsk, tsk, tsk... 'I told you so's are so uncouth.

quote:
Originally posted by foo fighter

I saw this coming back in the spring of 2000, when the first modules started hitting the market. My cries were met with shrugged shoulders when I warned that consumers will never spend $250 or more on a handheld, and then spend another $250-$400 for a "module." If a consumer wants a device that can be used as an MP3 player, they will buy a device that has that feature built-in. It's a shame that so many really brilliant ideas never took off, but those are the hazards faced in the business world.

I cannot get behind this argument. In fact if what you say here is true, that would mean that PPC would do better than Palm, which I KNOW you don't think.

The problem with the Springboard concept was not one of cost, but one of incompetence, overinflated expectations, and impatience. From the day the Visor was released to today, the Springboard market has been fraught with bad press, confusion, market instability, and disappointment. Just look at memory storage as an example. First there was the ridiculously overpriced springboard memory expansion, and the promise of a plethora of modules that would let you use almost any portable memory module. Then, one day, there was finally a CF adapter with no software. Before the word could even really get out about the first CF adapter, there was a new one with no software, but the CF card could fit flush, then one with software built in where the card could not fit flush then two more with or without software where the card may or may not have fit flush depending on the month it was manufactured, then some of the companies making some of the products went out of business, and only one or two products were left where the card probably would fit flush unless you got backstock. Mind you, I am just talking about CF! I am not even getting into all the other memory expansion options "under development" that never came to market.

Then you had all the promised products that either never showed up, or worse came to market lacking advertised functionality. This is not the type of situation that inspires the confidence of consumers. I don't think the problem with Springboard was either technical, nor economic. I think it was simply an issue of Handspring's inexperience and, to a certain extent, incompetence. If you are trying to build a licensed standard with the hopes of framing an entire economy around it, it only makes sense to exert some level of quality control, at least at the beginning, to ensure that the standard offers value to both customers and potential developers. Handspring failed to do this. In fact, Handspring opened up a feeding frenzy of inexperienced, and even unscrupulous, developers looking to turn a quick buck off the hot new fad.

Add to all of this the shocking impatience of today's stockmarket driven business strategies, and you have Handspring hoping to create an entire economy around the Springboard slot, but not even giving it two years to mature before planning an "exit strategy!" Just look at how long Sony has been plugging MemoryStick, and it is only now starting to lure developers, and bear fruit, yet in half that time Handspring has already given SB up for dead.

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Posted by BillC on 01-17-2002 03:38 PM:

no Treo

I've spent a small fortune on Visor PDA's and springboards. If Handspring abandons me, they'll make an enemy for life. I'll rot before I'll buy a Treo.

Posted by Burns on 01-17-2002 06:25 PM:

I've been lurking around this topic for long enough. It's time for me to add my .02 . In my opinion, Handspring has served its purpose. "What is that supposed to mean?" you ask. Jeff and Donna set out to revolutionize the Palm Handheld when they created Handspring. Not only did they add functionality to hardware in the form of multiple types of expansion possibilities, they brought it youthful "coolness" with new color choices. But that's not all, they made PDA's affordable! They made it possible for just about any Joe/Jane Shmoe who has any brains about them to save up a little money and get into the PDA scene.

So, they succeeded in revolutionizing the PDA at an affordable price for a laypersone. Just about every PDA available today has expansion capabilities, including some really cool things like bluetooth, cameras, etc. Prices are a lot lower than they used to be, thanks to Handspring (and now Sony, btw).

So, what's my pov on the matter. Handspring has done it's job. It's time to move on to a new frontier and revolutionize there too. Even if they go belly up, I'm sure Jeff and Donna have other plans and other patents under they belts.

As far as the Visor line dying off, I've got an opinion on that too. I still see Palm III's around. I think I'll see people carrying around their different Visor models for a long time to come. I also see Springboard module prices falling. Which might get people to keep their Visors even longer.

So that's my opinion. Take it as it is or not at all. It's up to you.

- Burns

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Posted by chitown on 01-17-2002 07:44 PM:

quote:
Handspring has served its purpose.

quoted Burns.

Handsprings purpose is to make money for it's shareholders, not to altruistically advance the state of handhelds within society. Get a grip on reality, man.

Posted by ubik on 01-18-2002 12:17 AM:

quote:
Originally posted by chitown
Handsprings purpose is to make money for it's shareholders, not to altruistically advance the state of handhelds within society. Get a grip on reality, man.

And that pretty much sums up why our economy is in the toilet! I don't know how old you are, or how long you have been involved in the business world, but trust me, there use to be a time when companies had loftier corporate mission statements than just to make money for their shareholders.

I swear that this new found drive to do whatever it takes to bolster your stock price is going to kill our economy. You know, outside of the US there are plenty of companies willing to endure years of unprofitable development to reach their ultimate goal, and this American fascination with doing whatever you can to turn the stock around this quarter is going to put the US way behind those foreign companies that still have a vision instead of a get rich quick mentality.

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