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-- Article: The PC is DEAD (http://discussion.visorcentral.com/vcforum/showthread.php?threadid=11878)

I would like to respond to this week's article of Visor Central.com

The PC is dead is very true. However, is it seriously possible to have a PDA (visor/palm/ce) with out a PC???

Not only to load up apps/games/other data, but also to hotsync your calendar/todo lists and NOT manually type them into the pda.

Is it even remotely possible to have a pda w/o a PC?

I am sick to death of the crack induced notion that Palm devices will replace the PC itself. You people are deluding yourself. For one thing, all PDAs connect to....that's right, a PC! You can't have one w/o the other, and I don't know a single soul who owns a PDA but not a PC. Palm/Visor's are NOT replacing PCs, neither are digital cameras, MP3 players, Mobile phones, or DV recorders. These devices all plug into a desktop PC. True, Desktop sales are down, while PDA sales are up, but consumers are not throwing out their PCs and "replacing" them with mobile devices.

Gates and Jobs are correct that the PC will become the digital hub of our lives, but it will also become the central server as well. Right now, consumers buy PCs to replace older systems, or to simply add one in the living room or the kids room. And that is what will change. I believe that home computing will move to a wirelessly connected network style computing model. PCs will morph into the server role and will be surrounded by terminals (thin clients) throughout the home. There will be a terminal in the kids room, the living room, den, kitchen, web pads, PDAs, and all connected to the central PC/Server. Little tommy can be playing Quake VI on his terminal while little sarah is chatting with here friends on her web pad: and all of the workload is being handled by the central PC/Server.

At least, that is what I think the future will bring.

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My blog: Pocketfactory

The article wasn't intended to tell you that you will never have to use a PC, period. I think the idea was that your Visor will be the major control FOR your PC and everything related to it. Why sit down in your den every time you want to watch a DVD on your DVD player? Have the Visor tell the computer where you are and which monitor to send the video to. Even better, let the Visor track your movements and send that video to whatever room you are in (no more interrupting for potty breaks!).

Yes, you probably will want to do some data entry through your computer (or just use a portable keyboard). Yes, you probably will have to install your programs from a PC. It would be silly to try to make your handheld as powerful as a larger unit you could have sitting on a desk somewhere, but using the Visor as the remote control for your life is not.

You know what I think would be the coolest thing in the world? Having customized content for different places. In the kitchen? Tell me what's in the fridge. In the bedroom? Remind me of that meeting I have to go to tomorrow and tell me my suit's at the cleaner's (doh!). At work? Sort my memos and contacts so work info is at the top. I think you get the picture. It's not too much of a stretch from what we have now. With a little better GPS technology, wireless for those darned weather forecasts, and a whole lot more communication between the PC and Handheld industries we could really be looking at the ultimate tool for keeping our messes of lives in order.

Let's get it on Handspring!

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DLPanther
<a href= "http://www.dlpanther.com">DLPanther's Nonsense Page</a>
"When All Else Fails, Improvise!"

Well, I agree with you on handhelds becoming the remote control device of our lives. The technology sounds promising. I was merely voicing my opinion on the insane notion that Palm devices are literally replacing the PC. There is no evidence whatsoever to support that. Do post-PC era supporters actually believe that consumers are going to throw out a bright 15-17" high resolution display and replace it with a tiny 160x160 green display? Please!!! That is crazy! It reminds me of the mantra from Linux users who claim that one day people will go back to Command line interfaces once they realize the power that it brings. HA HA! Its never going to happen.

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My blog: Pocketfactory

Do you guys actually READ these articles??

Alan isn't saying that PC's will disappear....i suggest you re-read this page (carefully this time )

http://www.visorcentral.com/page/0-4-73-4-4.htm



and pay particular example to this paragraph....

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Let me illustrate my point with an example of one thing that wireless should be. With the Visor module I mentioned (the hypothetical one controlling your personal server), you could initiate a peer to peer file transfer between two people, with the handhelds initiating the transfer between two personal home servers. Not one bit of that file crosses their IR stream. The idea that I could transfer a 1GB file to someone across the table from me is real power. This makes Napster look like the telegraph. We have all this bandwidth coming into our homes and offices. Why not use our handheld to control and direct it? Let's not wait for wireless bandwidth to rival the current state of fiber optic cables. Minimal packets of data could move mountains, now!

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Ever feel like the train left while you were busy reading the paper?

Stealth-Mod.

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Originally posted by Hoser_in_USA
Do you guys actually READ these articles??

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He's just talking about controlling them from handhelds so that your Visor becomes the 'portal' with which you control that rectangular, beige box sitting under your desk.

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My blog: Pocketfactory

First of all...thanks Hoser!

I guess since this is my article...I should go ahead and say something.

I didn't actually say the PC is dead. I said the PC as we know it is dead. I am not a person who believes that smaller is necessarily better. I certainly don't think PCs will go away...but they will be forced to evolve due to the handheld revolution. But, the reason the PC won't dissapear is very simple...economics of scale - a la Alan du jour.

Imagine a Visor with a 300Mhz processor and a 1GB storage solution inside it. Pretty powerful...however...imagine a space 3'x3'x3' in size. How many Visors can you store in that space? Let's say 40. That is 40 processors running at 300Mhz...and 40GB of storage. Now take out the Visor cases and just imagine how many processors and storage devices you could pack in that space...and let's not get picky about mentioning power supplies and the other impossibilites of this configuration...my fantasy...my rules.

The point being...that no matter how small you can get...bigger will always be better. Not for mobility...but pure power. So it is obvious that no handheld will ever replace the power of a box in the house. Make a computer that fits on the head of a pin that can calculate Pi to 10,000 decimal points...I'll build one as big as a room that can calculate it to 100,000,000,000,000+ decimal points (and math is not my strong suit so let's no show off or get too geeky). I think that illustrates my point.

I got one email that said that smaller devices...like wearable...will replace the handheld. Possible...not probable. Not for some time anyway...too big of a jump. Let's master the technology we have first before we go implanting processors in our brains.

Let me illustrate something else. Look at the development of computer technology in the past 20 years. Handheld technology has progressed in more ways in the past two years than the PC did in 20. Now...what does that mean? Well...it wasn't just the advancement of processing speed and software development that took so long for the PC...it was learning just what we could use the damn thing for. Let's face it, it was the advent of E-mail and the Internet that gave most of us a reason to even own a computer. Before that...you had to be a real geek (and I was) to own one. They were too expensive (64MB RAM was $10,000) and limited in ability...because we had no real idea of what the computer was capable of doing.

We are making a mistake with the handheld. We are moving too fast too soon with the handheld. We need to take one step back and imagine what we could do today with it...not what we could do five years from now. The handheld's progression could be it's own downfall. I often think we monkeys are so pleased with ourselves for what we have created...and how small we got it...that we have no real idea what to do with it except bang it against a rock. Wow...that's cool...now what do I do with it?

So...what I would like for the industry to do is look around you and see what technology we have now...and how it can improve our lives today. Everything I described in my article is off-the-shelf technology. Think about that...I ain't talkin about Star Trek stuff...I am talking about components and software that exists today. Well why then do we not have it? Because we have Techno-ADD. Can't sit still long enough to make any one thing work well.

One last example...

See that little smokey window on the side of your Visor. That is your IR...and guess what...we use it to beam business cards. Huh? Do you realize what the current speed of IR is...and do you know that we can beef that up...and why the hell aren't we exploiting that window. It puts a serial connection to shame. If we were smart...three years ago we would have wired up a bunch of IR ports to the web...and used little beaming stations as proxy servers for email and browsing. We could have had super fast "wireless" years ago. In fact...it is still faster than most wireless radio signals. Can you believe people are purchasing Palm devices with built in 8kbps connections? Can you believe they would sell something so poor? I can. It isn't Palm's fault...it is our own for not demanding better.

I appreciate all the response I got from this article...and I encourage people to express their opinions whether they agree or not. I am not some self-important journalist writing about what you should do. I was out there creating technology in the trenches with many of you. I do think that honest and open discussion of ideas is the only way to move forward.

Thanks to everyone who emailed me and contributed here. It means a lot to me that we can have a compelling discussion even if we disagree.

Alan Graham

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I saw that everyone else had a signature and I felt left out, so here is mine.

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Originally posted by foo fighter


Your PC shouldn't be a beige box, and it shouldn't be under your desk. Kind of sums up the whole PC dilemma in one sentence.

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__________________
"One of the most important things you learn from the internet is that there is no �them� out there. It�s just an awful lot of �us�." -- Douglas Adams

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Do you realize what the current speed of IR is...and do you know that we can beef that up...and why the hell aren't we exploiting that window. It puts a serial connection to shame.

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Folks,

As I emailed Alan after he published his article, I can only agree with the idea that the PC "as we know it" is dead.

As we are talking of what we could do with our Handheld, I've been having some thoughts those last days, the best one I think is the following:

Fist of all, I'm a bit pissed of that I gotta use a damn 15", or 17" screen, when I've got a big TV. I did think of linking my PC to my TV and use it as a screen but the TV has such a poor definition that it's hopeless, so I thought a projector would do (still quite expensive though). BUt let's take it, we now have one big screen for everything.

This projector is linked up to my PC and my satellite TV receiver. My PC is hidden somewhere in a cupboard because I can't stand this ugly beige box anymore, and is controlled via a wireless keyboard and mouse (logitech, and they work great), or the visor via its craddle and a vnc kind of software.

The TV receiver and the projector are remotely controlled by my visor via its IR port.

Sounds good ?

Ok some more stuff then, my PC should have a FM radio card, and an external player that can read/write DVDs, CDs, CDRoms, and my door bell video camera is linked on my PC as well as the electric gate... Cool eh ?

Ok one last, the house alarm is linked to my PC as well and let's say the electric shutters.


Eh, look, all of this is possible TODAY.... It's just a bit expensive and time consuming to set it up, but we can do it.

BobRus.

Forgot to mention, everything is of course controlled by the visor. Let's hope Blue tooth module will make us get rid of the craddle.

quote:

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Originally posted by BobRus
Eh, look, all of this is possible TODAY.... It's just a bit expensive and time consuming to set it up, but we can do it.

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BobRus (and Laird) i love your idea of having everything linked to the PC...it's a geek's dream (for lack of better words) and should be everyone's dream.

However, it brings on a negative spin....
Currently if my TV isn't working, i surf the net on my computer...if i'm installing hardware into my computer, i've got the TV running off to the side...

there's something negative to be said about bringing 'everything together' but i don't think i'm doing a good job in saying it. But you get the picture? Right? Or is your PC not working and you can't surf the web to read this, and you can't make coffee or watch TV or see who's at the front gate or...

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Ever feel like the train left while you were busy reading the paper?

Stealth-Mod.

I understand about power consumption with IR, but it woudn't take that much power to pull down e-mail using IR and a terminal. I mean it wouldn't take any more time to check mail than to beam an application or business card. BTW, since when has power consumption ever kept us from improving technology? I mean, when laptop screens went color, they sucked the power right out of the battery. We learned to make color screens with less power consumtpion and better battieries.

I will debate you Laird on the progress of handheld computing.

It took how many years to get a cheap, effective 1GB drive into the PC? Just five years ago I was buying 10GB drive arrays for $10,000 (they were huge). IBM recently released a 1GB drive so small it would slide into the Visor. The reason that handheld technology has developed faster in two years than the PC did in 20...is because the development of the PC has laid the groundworkd for it. It is because e-mail and the Internet have laid the groundwork for it.

I grow weary of all this discussion of the "killer app." There is no such thing. There is only "killer need." Apps don't make themselves...people face a need and they create a solution for it. So if you are looking for the next killer app...look at your handheld and think of what your killer need is.

I'll also debate that 123 wasn't such a killer app that it drove people to buy computers...I would say that concepts drove computer sales like desktop publishing or the internet. Everyone has a different need and they purchase based on that need...even if it is gaming or accounting.

But...I am just debating.

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I saw that everyone else had a signature and I felt left out, so here is mine.

Comments on article

First of all, I thought that Alan's article was one of the best I have ever read on this website. Having said that, I question why he feels that handheld technologies (that are currently available at reasonable costs) have rapidly progressed in the last two years. Perhaps I misunderstood his point and that his intentions were that technologies are available but not utilized.

I love my Visor, and although I only currently own the backup module, I can appreciate the expansion capabilities. But I cannot honestly say that the way that I use my visor has dramatically changed since I purchased a Palm Pilot in 1996. I can't understand why manufacturers haven't provided for example a color screen with real definition at the current costs of monochrome. Why is there such limited flexibility and storage capabilities in my handheld? Why do I need to have a different module for every different use. I have this awful vision that I will be carrying my visor along with a briefcase full of modules and have to swap them in and out.

One of the thoughts that come to mind is to truly question the long term future of the Palm OS. But now I am getting over my head, so I will stop for now.

Svillanu,

I am not defending the state of handheld development in the past two years...but what I am saying is that there have been some major advancements in storage, size speed, expansion and price. Along with that there has been a rapid increase in the acceptability of handhelds and sales have drastically increased. Not just a geeky tool anymore. My fiance use to tease me about my "Visor Gameboy" until she got one...and now she wouldn't be without it. It is the combination of technology and acceptance that has led to what I consider an "advancement." For most of us who have owned handhelds for a long period of time (I owned the first Newton) progress has been slow. But for new handheld users, they are thrilled at the possibilities.

Don't just think of the Palm and Visor...there are tons of devices out there that each have compelling features. We are a little ways from bringing all that technology together in an affordable and useful package though. However, just look at the advancement of the handheld since the introduction of the Visor. I think the Visor has really changed what people view the handheld as representing, and I don't think anyone can argue that the Visor itself has been a monumental step forward.

Thanks for the note.

Alan

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I saw that everyone else had a signature and I felt left out, so here is mine.

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Originally posted by agraham999
I understand about power consumption with IR, but it woudn't take that much power to pull down e-mail using IR and a terminal.

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I will debate you Laird on the progress of handheld computing.
I grow weary of all this discussion of the "killer app." There is no such thing. There is only "killer need." Apps don't make themselves...people face a need and they create a solution for it. So if you are looking for the next killer app...look at your handheld and think of what your killer need is.

I'll also debate that 123 wasn't such a killer app that it drove people to buy computers...I would say that concepts drove computer sales like desktop publishing or the internet.

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PCs aren't dead. They aren't even fading away. They "might" be evolving.

By the way, evolving is what they were designed to do. As devices that rely on programming, they leave it up to the imagination of Man to make them do something useful. My TI-99/4A couldn't do anything unless you wrote a program for it. A few modules came with programs already installed, but the most fun I had with my TI-99/4A was making it do things I wanted it to do. An Erector Set for the mind, perhaps. It was very clear to me then, as it is now; The PC will profoundly alter out lives, and in ways we can not yet imagine.

The only thing that is dying is one narrow vision of what PC's were "supposed" to do. The PC will do what we need it to do tomorrow, and probably better than how well it did the things we needed it to do yesterday. If it's form factor changes, that's great. If it steals a little of Man's attention from the other toys that populate our lives, then that's great to. It will do what we want it to do. That's what a PC is. We just have to know what we want it to do.

Dave

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There is nothing yet made by man that cannot be improved upon.

1. The killer app for handhelds is already here. It's the PIM apps. That's what most people use a handheld for.

2. The problem with the PC market right now isn't hat the PC is dead, it's that it's gotten so fast and powerful that getting a new PC isn't interesting for most people. They don't need a faster PC. We're not there yet with handhelds.

What's going to have to happen to move forward is to split the PC up between its two roles: "where you keep your stuff" and "where you interact with your stuff". Microsoft knows this, but they're floundering around because they want to control the communications between the two. Right now the obvious way to do it is to have your "home server" talking to your "personal computer" using standard networking protocols you already have: TCP, HTTP, Microsoft Networking, RealAudio, Windows media, and so on.

The problem is Microsoft doesn't control most of these protocols, even the ones they originated: one of the best Microsoft Networking servers today is the freeware "Samba" package, for example, and Real Audio is kicking Windows Media in the butt.

That, more than anything else, is what's stalling the PC out. Microsoft has some people working on an Exchange server that will talk to any web browser, and an Outlook client that will work with any mail server, but they don't have it. Similarly, you can't export your Outlook PIM info as HTML.

3COM has their kitchen PC, but it doesn't talk to the rest of your home network.

What we need is something you can plug into a PC that will boot it up with a mail server and a web server and the webserver preloaded with PIM web pages and a Palm cradle attachment point. You talk to it through a set-top box, through your kitchen PC, through the big honking games box (PC, XBox, PS2) in the kid's room, and so on.

Give it a decent firewall and an appropriate encrypted client in the Palm, and you can control it on the road, initiate email...

OK, we could do this now. *I* have most of it already, but it hasn't been packaged for joe user. It won't come out of Microsoft... they won't release their home server until they can tie you up to Microsoft controlled protocols. Who else has the presence to kick it off?

Anyway, back to your Visor. It'll be ONE of the interfaces to the home server. But just one of many.

And the handheld itself would benefit from this same sort of client-server setup. rather than syncing directly to your Visor, you should be syncing to a personal data repository... of which the Visor is one example. Me, I want mine in an opaque black aluminum dongle on my keychain, all ruggedized and weatherproof, that I sync my Visor with using Bluetooth, which acts as a packet router between my Visor and the local 802.11 LAN or my bluetooth phone or with its own CDPD interface. If I'm going swimming, I tie it to my wrist, when I need the data out of it I log in from whatever interface is convenient: a waterproof console at the pool bar, maybe, or a cerdit-card-sized gadget in my wallet.

Put a webserver on *IT*, so if my Visor or Pcooket PC doesn't have a client for some applet I can access the data via a generic browser.

Ubiquitous, wireless, standards-based computing. It's the only way to fly.

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Rev. Peter da Silva, ULC<br>
<a href=http://www.taronga.com/~peter/>Ar rug t� barr�g ar do mhact�re inniu?</a>

I think it is cool to see so many people participating in this discussion. The free exchange of ideas is a great thing!

I don't know the future any more than the next person...but I love to discuss and debate it.

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I saw that everyone else had a signature and I felt left out, so here is mine.

First off, the article's title was poorly chosen.

As for the article itself and what people have posted here...I've heard it all before. Its nothing new!, all of it is the next logical step for the PC. I found the article rather boring, I've read it a dozen times in various forms on various sites. What is described in the article and what people are posting here is obvious common sense based on the fact that all our devices are beginning to converge.

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Matt Nichols
[email protected]