VisorCentral.com - They picked his bones in whispers...

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-- They picked his bones in whispers... (http://discussion.visorcentral.com/vcforum/showthread.php?threadid=20860)

Posted by hog on 01-16-2002 06:05 AM:

They picked his bones in whispers...

Here is a telling tale:
I too have finally given up on the entire Handspring corporation though I was among the throng intrigued by the initial Treo ads Hawkins sent out several weeks ago.
Well I was trying to short 1000 shares of HAND stock this past week and my analysts advised strongly that I would lose even at this because TOO MANY FOLKS TODAY WERE TRYING TO SHORT HAND STOCK!!! This tells you that many thousands of insiders are betting their hard-earned money that Handspring will bankrupt within weeks if not a few short months.
Let's see...we've got a naive and creatively impotent Hawkins at the helm. A perimenopausal out-of-control Dumbinsky doing TV interviews. We'll all remember Handspring derisively decades from now, in the same cache with those Commodore64s from 1983. I'll no longer even frequent palm forums as I've already initiated switching my employees to (gasp) PPC devices. Let us part then on the words of Thomas Stearns Eliot

Phlebas the Phoenician, a fortnight dead, forgot the cry of gulls
And the deep sea swell,
And the profit and loss.
They picked his bones in whispers as he rose and fell,
Entering the whirlpool.
Oh you who turn the wheel and look to windward,
Remember Phlebas who was once handsome and tall
as you.

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Same as the old boss"

Posted by yardie on 01-17-2002 05:45 AM:

Amen

Amen!

Good riddance to you!

Posted by septimus on 01-17-2002 01:49 PM:

Re: Amen

quote:
Originally posted by yardie
Amen!

Good riddance to you!

Yo! it was a good poem.

OT: yardie, you seem to be a diehard Handspring booster. How come you're so fervent?

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Posted by dick-richardson on 01-17-2002 03:26 PM:

So, because one small Palm licensee refocuses its product line, you're switching to PPC?

I'm glad it makes sense in your world.

__________________
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Abortion: Darwinism at its finest.

Posted by K. Cannon on 01-17-2002 03:40 PM:

I liked the Commodore64...Not as much as my Atari 400, though.

Posted by usonian2001 on 01-18-2002 12:02 AM:

quote:
Originally posted by K. Cannon
I liked the Commodore64...

I loved my C64 and my Amigas (I had an Amiga 500 and later bought a used Amiga 2000). I don't think people look back at Commodore's products with derision... they look back at the company itself with derision. (And rightly so - Commodore had an amazing machine in the Amiga, but the execs mismanaged the company into the ground.)

I think it's too early to declare Handspring's management incompetent, but no matter how I look at it I can't help but question the judgement behind Dubinsky's announcement.

While it's true that she didn't say they're not making any more Springboard-compatible products, it's also true that she didn't explain what what it does mean for the future of the Springboard platform.

While exiting the "traditional handheld market" may be the best (or only) strategy Handspring has at this point, yesterday's announcement seems foolhardy; the announcement wasn't "We're getting out of the traditional PDA biz, but we will continue to support the Springboard in future products", or "We're getting out of the traditional PDA biz, but wait 'till you see what's in store after the Treo". It was "We're getting out of the traditional PDA biz at some undisclosed point in the future, and by the way that new thing won't be available until next month."

Never mind what their future plans for survival and profitability as a company are, as a consumer I want to know what's up with the Visor line and Springboards, which I've spent a lot of money on since I got my Vdx two years ago. Not to mention all the evangelizing I've done for Handspring; I know of at least 5 people who bought Handspring products based in part (or sometimes in whole) on my advice.

If I were a Springboard developer I would want to know what was up with all that money I had invested in development over the last 2-3 years.

From either perspective, I don't see a compelling reason to keep buying or developing for Handspring/Springboard products, when it sounds like the ones currently on the shelf are already obsolete.

I hope that Handspring doesn't become the Commodore of the early 21st Century, but I really wonder what Donna Dubinsky was thinking when she made such a vague and alarming (to consumers and developers alike) announcement yesterday with no concrete timeline or details.

Here's hoping Palm can get its act up to date with OS5 devices. (and that my Prism holds out until then

)

__________________

Posted by tstarky on 01-18-2002 03:29 AM:

Hey!

quote:
Originally posted by hog
...A perimenopausal out-of-control...

...I resemble that remark!

no wait...that's RESENT...

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Posted by yardie on 01-23-2002 11:18 AM:

Re: Re: Amen

quote:
Originally posted by dietrichbohn

Yo! it was a good poem.

OT: yardie, you seem to be a diehard Handspring booster. How come you're so fervent?

OK DietrichBohn. You got me. I am really the CPO (Chief Promotions Officer)

Seriously, I am a big fan of Handspring and their products. I fell in love the the Visor Deluxe the first time I saw it on their web site two years. I didn't even know what a PDA was then. I just saw it and thought I had to have one. It cost me about $350 USD to get one in time for xmas '99. They weren't shipping it to Canada at the time so I had to pay a premium for it on Eaby (They were also serioulsy back ordered).

Now, I am have the same love affair with the Treo. The Treo is what I always wanted in a PDA. The only thing I would add to this version of the Treo is a color screen and a memory slot.

Posted by Keefer Lucas on 01-23-2002 02:20 PM:

Handsprung

I think that Handspring has a tough road ahead, and it has little to do with incompetant management. It all has to do with circumstances. The once vaunted Palm OS is being harpooned by Microsoft, like so many other operating systems in the past. Hey, there is no shame in that. I'd like to see Jack Welch go head to head with Microsoft. Its an untenable situation.

Fortunately Handspring has been able to raise some capital over the past three months. They will make it to year-end and then some. They have very favorable agreements with out-sourced manufacturers. If need be they can stop production of everything and go into an extended period of R&D and come back with something groundbreaking in 2003. Remember, this isn't a good old fashioned manufacturing company...nobody there actually makes anything. The burn rate largely stops when manufacturing stops.

So, if the question is, "Will Handspring be in business this time next year?" the answer is yes. If the question is "Will Handspring be a vital and vibrant company with a market cap of over $1B next year?" the question is almost certainly no.

Posted by foo fighter on 01-23-2002 02:50 PM:

Re: Handsprung

quote:
Originally posted by Keefer Lucas
The once vaunted Palm OS is being harpooned by Microsoft, like so many other operating systems in the past.

True, but lets also give some credit to Palm for doing a wonderful job of steering the ship onto the rocks. And Yankowski was one hell of a helmsman!

Palm continued to preach the gospel of "Zen" while Microsoft was pouring resources into an OS that could meet the demands of IT departments. At a time when Microsoft was developing/refining a more advanced operating system, Palm was busy co-marketing the Claudia Schiffer Palm. In short, Microsoft bet on the future...while Palm bet on the moment. Now they seem to have no future.

It's hard to feel any sympathy for Palm.

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Posted by dick-richardson on 01-23-2002 03:50 PM:

Re: Re: Handsprung

quote:
Originally posted by foo fighter
...Now they seem to have no future.

Allow me to disagree, Mr. Fighter. While I agree they did piss R&D down the drain trying to color coordinate their PDA's with their exec's undergarments while they should've been innovating, they got both lucky and smart with the purchase of Be. Be comes with more innovation than Palm would've been able to muster.

quote:
It's hard to feel any sympathy for Palm.

Why do they need it?

__________________
-Joshua
Abortion: Darwinism at its finest.

Posted by sowens on 01-23-2002 04:22 PM:

Re: Handsprung

quote:
Originally posted by Keefer Lucas
The burn rate largely stops when manufacturing stops.

Not sure I agree with this.

Manufacturing costs are covered by unit sales. R&D can be amortized into the cost of the product, but that's typically done against the new product you're developing, although the actual money to pay the developers needs to come from the current product line. If you're not selling products you better have a lot of cash on hand (or eager investors with deep pockets), otherwise you're going to run out of funds quickly.

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Posted by Keefer Lucas on 01-23-2002 06:32 PM:

Re: Re: Handsprung

quote:
Originally posted by sowens

Manufacturing costs are covered by unit sales. R&D can be amortized into the cost of the product, but that's typically done against the new product you're developing, although the actual money to pay the developers needs to come from the current product line. If you're not selling products you better have a lot of cash on hand (or eager investors with deep pockets), otherwise you're going to run out of funds quickly.

You've become deluded by overexposure to the conventional wisdom as spun by Kodak.

Fortunately Handspring would have (under my worst case scenario) enough cash on hand to carry R&D through a 6-12 month period, at which time they had better have a damn good product to put in the pipeline. If not, they would be DOA.

Your observation would be true in a diversified company like Sony, with thousands of employees to carry with income from manufacturing. For better or worse, Handspring isn't saddled with that kind of overhead.

Keep in mind, we are discussing strategies for keeping Handspring in business for the short term. Its not a situation that anyone would seek to implement for a more diversified consumer product company.

Posted by Gameboy70 on 01-24-2002 08:14 AM:

Keefer Lucas wrote:
I think that Handspring has a tough road ahead, and it has little to do with incompetant [sic] management. It all has to do with circumstances. The once vaunted Palm OS is being harpooned by Microsoft, like so many other operating systems in the past. Hey, there is no shame in that. I'd like to see Jack Welch go head to head with Microsoft. Its an untenable situation.

I disagree on both counts. Any CEO who unnecessarily makes a public statement insinuating that her company's one shipping product line is obsolescent is guilty of incompetent management. Even the damage of Scott McNealy's "zero privacy" gaffe was limited by virtue of Sun being well diversified.

Three weeks ago I insisted that the Visor line wouldn't be dropped in favor of the Treo. Now it's all too obvious that Handspring's fidelity to the Visor is tenuous, at best. The Treo notwithstanding, within 10 months Handspring will be following Psion's footsteps.

Microsoft, IMO, has almost nothing to do with Handspring's problems. Sony has almost everything to do with Handspring's problems. The last time I checked, the Palm OS was still hovering well over a 70% market share. But the more players there are in the Palm OS market, the smaller each slice of that market gets unless you're an aggressive front runner: Sony.

dick-richardson wrote:
While I agree they did piss R&D down the drain trying to color coordinate their PDA's with their exec's undergarments while they should've been innovating, they got both lucky and smart with the purchase of Be. Be comes with more innovation than Palm would've been able to muster.

As the kids say, a day late and a dollar short. If Palm has any intention of BeIA running Palm legacy apps, we're going to see shipping delays that will make Microsoft's attempts at merging Win9x/NT architectures seem mild by comparison. Whatever long-term wisdom there may be behind the move, the timing couldn't be worse.

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Posted by Keefer Lucas on 01-24-2002 01:16 PM:

quote:
Originally posted by Gameboy70
Microsoft, IMO, has almost nothing to do with Handspring's problems. Sony has almost everything to do with Handspring's problems. The last time I checked, the Palm OS was still hovering well over a 70% market share. But the more players there are in the Palm OS market, the smaller each slice of that market gets unless you're an aggressive front runner: Sony.

There are two distinct groups that Handspring needs to play to, users and investors. I agree that Sony has taken a lead in product innovation, offering more incremental product improvements. But it is the ever present Microsoft threat that is driving both institutional and individual investors away from the company. From an investment standpoint Sony is cause for concern. Microsoft is cause for panic.

Posted by foo fighter on 01-24-2002 02:53 PM:

quote:
Originally posted by Keefer Lucas

There are two distinct groups that Handspring needs to play to, users and investors. I agree that Sony has taken a lead in product innovation, offering more incremental product improvements. But it is the ever present Microsoft threat that is driving both institutional and individual investors away from the company. From an investment standpoint Sony is cause for concern. Microsoft is cause for panic.

You got it. Palm faces a darker reality that many thought could never happen....PocketPC is succeeding. Not just among hardcore PDA enthusiasts, but in the general media as well. Even the "Lord of the Rings" web site offered a download for PPC users. And what is even more disturbing...PalmGear.com will begin selling PocketPC software within the next 30-60 days. Who would have thought we would one day see PalmGear embracing the "dark side"?

Palm faces many problems, some will be overcome. But right now Palm has the smell of failure all over. While PPC is seen as the winning up'n'coming platform. Whether PPC really will win remains to be seen. I have my doubts considering how expensive the hardware is. Regardless, Palm needs a new, more advanced, OS that can infuse excitement back into the platform..and they need it fast!

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Posted by Toby on 01-24-2002 03:09 PM:

quote:
Originally posted by foo fighter
You got it. Palm faces a darker reality that many thought could never happen....PocketPC is succeeding. Not just among hardcore PDA enthusiasts, but in the general media as well. Even the "Lord of the Rings" web site offered a download for PPC users. And what is even more disturbing...PalmGear.com will begin selling PocketPC software within the next 30-60 days. Who would have thought we would one day see PalmGear embracing the "dark side"?

And who wants to bet that PalmGear gets sued into changing their name, or gets charged significant enough license fees to change it? Palm has already changed Handango to the 'official' software site.

quote:
Palm faces many problems, some will be overcome. But right now Palm has the smell of failure all over. While PPC is seen as the winning up'n'coming platform. Whether PPC really will win remains to be seen. I have my doubts considering how expensive the hardware is. Regardless, Palm needs a new, more advanced, OS that can infuse excitement back into the platform..and they need it fast!

*shrug* I've had quite a few new PDAs show up here at work after the holiday season. All Palms. The only Jornada user around was even asking me about Palms yesterday because he was tired of having to work around the interface, and it was just highlighted by the fact that he had been trying out a free Palm that came with a recent computer purchase. Unless PocketPC manufacturers start figuring out a way to cut costs (or the ARM process drives Palm prices through the roof), I don't know if I consider PocketPC competition with Palm. To me, they're more trying to compete with a laptop. Unfortunately, while PocketPC prices go up, laptop prices go down.

Posted by foo fighter on 01-24-2002 03:33 PM:

quote:
Originally posted by Toby
*shrug* I've had quite a few new PDAs show up here at work after the holiday season. All Palms. The only Jornada user around was even asking me about Palms yesterday because he was tired of having to work around the interface, and it was just highlighted by the fact that he had been trying out a free Palm that came with a recent computer purchase. Unless PocketPC manufacturers start figuring out a way to cut costs (or the ARM process drives Palm prices through the roof), I don't know if I consider PocketPC competition with Palm. To me, they're more trying to compete with a laptop. Unfortunately, while PocketPC prices go up, laptop prices go down.

The price of PocketPC is very prohibitive. But from the officials at Microsoft I've chatted with, they do indeed have plans to help lower costs. Until that time comes, I don't really see PPC as serious competition to Palm in the consumer market. Palm's biggest threat right now is Sony.

But as costs do come down and Microsoft refines the OS, I think PocketPC will continue to squeeze out PalmOS.

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Posted by Toby on 01-24-2002 03:54 PM:

quote:
Originally posted by foo fighter
The price of PocketPC is very prohibitive. But from the officials at Microsoft I've chatted with, they do indeed have plans to help lower costs.

I'm curious as to how they'll do that if the OS licensing is supposedly only a small fraction of the cost. Hardware subsidies? Doesn't sound like a very kosher business model.

quote:
Until that time comes, I don't really see PPC as serious competition to Palm in the consumer market. Palm's biggest threat right now is Sony.

Actually, I wonder about that. I've the oft-quoted figure of 90-something percent of Palm's revenue being from hardware sales. To have any meaning to me, though, I suppose I'd have to know what percentage of their expenses were hardware sales as well. Now that the two entities are separate, though, I guess we'll see.

quote:
But as costs do come down and Microsoft refines the OS, I think PocketPC will continue to squeeze out PalmOS.

I think they've got a way to go on the refining side.

Posted by foo fighter on 01-24-2002 04:03 PM:

quote:
Originally posted by Toby
I'm curious as to how they'll do that if the OS licensing is supposedly only a small fraction of the cost. Hardware subsidies? Doesn't sound like a very kosher business model.

One way they will do this is to settle on one common system board for every PPC device. As it stands now the iPaq, Jornada, and others, all have unique system boards. By standardizing one one that every device and model can share, it will shave some costs off production. I don't know how much. ARM processors will definitely drop in price, especially when Palm begins adopting them. We may also see some price drops when "system on a chip" technologies hit the market, such as ATI's mobile graphics systems.

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